1、 Price trend
Business agency: under the influence of supply and demand, maleic anhydride fell after soaring in December
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
According to the data of business society, as of December 31, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 12166.67 yuan / ton (including tax), a decrease of 3.95% compared with 12666.67 yuan / ton on December 1. The highest price of maleic anhydride this month was 17666.67 yuan / ton and the lowest price was 12166.67 yuan / ton.
On December 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 114.61, down 3.14 points from yesterday, down 31.14% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 123.94% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In the first ten days of December, affected by the epidemic situation, the shipment of maleic anhydride in Zhejiang was blocked, and the factories in other regions limited the shipment. The supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the price of maleic anhydride rose sharply; In the middle of the year, the tight supply situation in the early stage was alleviated, the maleic anhydride shipment in South China was normal, the new production capacity began to be sold abroad, the domestic maleic anhydride factory shipment was positive, the demand slowed down in the last ten days, the transaction was light, and the maleic anhydride price continued to decline. In November, international crude oil rose sharply and domestic chemical prices rose. The operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market has declined, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
In December, the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seemed milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.
In December 2021, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated upward. The ex factory price in North China was 6687.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6825 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.06%. In December, the hydrobenzene market was mainly volatile, the price fell at the beginning of the month, and entered the upward channel after running smoothly for a period of time. Boosted by the recovery of market prices, the operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises increased slightly in December. Compared with pure benzene, the start-up and shutdown costs of hydrogenated benzene enterprises are lower, and most manufacturers schedule their production according to their profits.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that in December, affected by supply and demand, the price of domestic maleic anhydride market soared and plummeted, the operating rate of downstream resin raw materials fell, the willingness to receive goods downstream was low, the demand slowed down, and the wait-and-see mood was strong; At the end of the month, the maleic anhydride factory shipped actively and the price fell sharply. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by weak consolidation in January.
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