According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA ushered in a rebound trend this week (December 6-10) after falling for 8 consecutive weeks. As of December 10, the average market price in East China was 4656 yuan / ton, up 3.63% from the beginning of the week and 32.98% year-on-year.
During the week, the PTA production capacity of factory maintenance and production reduction increased, and the spot was less. Among them, the restart of Honggang 2#2.4 million ton unit was delayed, the load of 3.3 million ton unit of Yisheng new material was reduced, and the 2.2 million ton unit of Hengli Petrochemical was overhauled on December 10. The industrial operating rate fell below 72%. PTA’s slight destocking was conducive to the price rebound.
The crude oil market has experienced a sharp decline in the early stage, and the oil price has reached a relatively low level. At present, there is a willingness to rebound and repair. On the supply and demand side, the results of the OPEC + meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies were released last week. The policy was relatively conservative and increased production by 400000 barrels / day as scheduled. The statement of OPEC + in the later stage or flexibly controlling production according to the development trend of the epidemic supported the oil price. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are still deadlocked, so it is less likely that Iran’s crude oil will return to the market in the near future, which provides some support for the oil market, and the crude oil has ushered in a strong rebound. However, with the impact of the mutant strain Omicron on the economy fermenting again, people’s worries about economic recovery were rekindled, and oil prices fell under pressure. As of December 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $70.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $74.42/barrel.
In terms of demand, the operating load of the downstream polyester plant is not high and remains around 80%. This year is a warm winter. The domestic autumn and winter fabric market is particularly light. The inventory of weaving factories continues to rise, and the inventory is large, near 2 months. In December, foreign trade orders have not improved significantly, and the terminal weaving market has weakened. In addition, the orders of printing and dyeing factories have decreased significantly recently, and the follow-up or early holidays have resulted in low overall production enthusiasm of weaving factories. At present, the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is about 65%.
Business analysts believe that at present, PTA cost support still exists, and the supply side reduction caused by centralized maintenance of the device has boosted the PTA market. However, the sluggish demand will restrain the increase of PTA. At present, the terminal orders are still relatively light. At the same time, it is worried that there are uncertain factors in the foreign trade market after the year. It is expected that before the Spring Festival this year, the goods preparation of weaving factories may be relatively cautious, and the holiday time of weaving factories may be earlier than in previous years. On the whole, PTA will still maintain a shock upward trend in the short term. In the near future, we still need to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on logistics.
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