Recent urea price trend
As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong continued to rise sharply this week. The quotation increased from 2516.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 9.27%, an increase of 60.82% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index was 127.91 on September 24.
The cost support was strengthened, the downstream demand was enhanced, the printing news was good, and the urea supply decreased
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in China rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing offered 2850 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 270 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.
From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from 6256.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.11%, a year-on-year increase of 159.69% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal increased, and the quotation increased from 1407.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1525.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 8.35%, a year-on-year increase of 155.98% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 4725.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4950.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.76%, a year-on-year increase of 59.68% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 17000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 17300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.76%.
From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. From the perspective of supply: urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the early shutdown and maintenance has not been recovered (Tianrun, Boyuan, etc.), energy consumption control shutdown (Ningyang, Linggu), fault shutdown (xinlianxin, Dongguang, Jinkai), defect elimination of new units (Haoyuan), safety control (Jinxin), and the daily output of urea is less than 140000 tons. Internationally: India RCF announced a new round of urea import bidding, which was opened on October 1, valid until October 12, and the latest shipping date was November 11. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the printing news is good, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.
Urea prices are bullish in the future
In late September, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.
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