According to the commodity index system of business society, the commodity index of natural rubber (standard 1) on September 12 was 31.35, up 0.29 points from yesterday, down 68.65% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 11.37% from the lowest point of 28.15 points on November 25, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in recent January 2021
Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of mainstream price of natural rubber in the second week of September 2021
Data monitoring shows that during the week from September 6 to 12, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to fluctuate and decreased slightly. It was reported as 12685 yuan / ton on Monday and 12396.5 yuan / ton on Friday, a decrease of about 2.27%. There was a slight shock at the beginning of the week. In the middle of the week, tire enterprises stopped work to reduce production and weak demand led to a sharp drop in the market. There was a slight rebound at the weekend, but the range was very small. The highest price of the week was 12685 yuan / ton on the 6th.
From the perspective of new rubber output: at present, the new rubber in the main natural rubber production area is in the peak production season, affected by the epidemic situation, rainfall, high shipping freight, and the delayed export of Vietnamese natural rubber, the rubber import volume is not high. Thailand’s forecast shows that 37 provinces will be affected by tropical typhoon tonsen starting on the 12th, of which the Northeast will be the most affected. We should pay attention to the impact of flash floods and floods; In addition, there is heavy rainfall in many places in September, so it is necessary to pay attention to the occurrence of floods.
From the downstream demand: first, from the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, some tire manufacturers stopped production in a centralized manner, and the tire operating rate fell more than expected. The data statistics show that in the week of September 6, the operating rate of semi steel tire sample manufacturers was 47.70%, down 10.35% month on month and 22.60% year-on-year; The operating rate of all steel tire sample manufacturers was 48.91%, down 8.07% month on month and 25.95% year-on-year. On August 26, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team was stationed in Jilin, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan provinces, which is expected to end on September 26. It is reported that some enterprises say that agents have some replenishment needs, but the actual inventory pressure is transferred to terminal sales. The double festival is coming, the finished product inventory is high, and the sales pressure is increasing. Secondly, from the automobile data, on September 10, the latest production and sales data of China Automobile Association showed that in August 2021, China’s automobile production and sales continued to decline, and the year-on-year decline was larger than that of the previous month. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars in August were 1.497 million and 1.552 million, the output decreased by 3.3% month on month, the sales volume was flat, and the production and sales decreased by 11.9% and 11.7% respectively year on year; In August, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 229000 and 247000, with a month on month decrease of 27.5% and 20.9%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% and 42.8%. In August, the decline in production and sales continued to expand, mainly affected by the domestic epidemic and the epidemic in Malaysia. The increase in supply chain risk further increased the pressure on production reduction. In addition, the fluctuation in production and sales was also related to the high base in the same period last year. Although the shortage of chips has significantly affected the enterprise’s production plan, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles still show a slight increase compared with the data of the same period in 2019. China Automobile Association pointed out that at present, the demand in the terminal market remains stable, mainly due to the insufficient supply of automobile products.
In terms of inventory, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 232180 tons (+ 6826 tons) as of September 12, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 198470 tons (+ 5990 tons), and the domestic delivery inventory increased; In the previous period, the energy inventory of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipt was 42150 tons, an increase of 2526 tons. China’s natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to decline, and the spot of dark rubber is relatively strong.
In terms of import and export: Rubber: China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020. Vietnam: from January to August, Vietnam exported 1.129 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, a year-on-year increase of 23% over last year’s 920000 tons; A total of 741000 tons were exported to China, an increase of 7.5% over last year’s 689000 tons. Indonesia: the total export of natural rubber and mixed rubber in 1-8 months was 1.585 million tons, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year; A total of 131000 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year decrease of 62%. Tire: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the shipping problem will continue to affect China’s tire export.
Industry hot spots: Yang Yiping, deputy director of international cooperation and Business Development Department of Shanghai International Energy Trading Center (INE), said on Wednesday (September 8) that he hoped to launch freight index futures contracts this year, Reuters reported. In view of the tension faced by the global supply chain, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said in May that its company ine is studying and developing open products, such as freight index futures. Yang Yiping said: “after the first delivery of low sulfur fuel oil to Singapore in January 2021, we hope to develop more products traded on ine.” at present, foreign companies and investors have limited opportunities to enter China’s broad commodity market. At present, China’s open contracts include crude oil, iron ore, No. 20 rubber, low sulfur fuel oil and bonded copper. However, China has been trying to have global commodity pricing power and gradually open more commodity derivative contracts to overseas participants for trading.
According to the analysis of business society, from a macro perspective, the original oil price stabilizes, a variety of chemicals start a new round of upward, and natural rubber, as a futures commodity, will also be affected in the future. From the perspective of industrial chain, the supply side is affected by the weather brought by typhoon; On the demand side, downstream tire enterprises are undergoing ring inspection, the operating rate is falling, the inventory pressure is transmitted downward, and the traditional peak season effect of “golden nine silver ten” needs to be considered in terms of consumer demand. From the current influencing factors, the impact of supply side weather and environmental protection inspection on the operating rate of tire enterprises is the most prominent, and it is expected that the short-term price will continue to fluctuate.
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