According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on August 12, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 9225 yuan / ton, an increase of 112.5 yuan or 1.23% over 9112.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 0.96% over the beginning of the month and 43.64% over the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
The PVC market continued to rise this week. The increase range of enterprises in the week was mostly in the range of 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market focus moved upward. Last week, the PVC market fell first and then rose, but it was always difficult to break the stalemate with small fluctuations. After weekend adjustment, the PVC market began to test a small rise on Monday, and the market began to strengthen after a comprehensive rise in the middle and late weeks of the week. The current round of PVC market price rise is mainly due to the power restriction in Inner Mongolia, the decline in the output of raw calcium carbide, high price and short supply. Under the support of cost, some PVC enterprises operate with reduced load, tight supply in the spot market, no pressure on inventory, and the rise of futures price, which drives the price rise in the spot market. At the beginning of August, CFR China was at US $1250 / T, while CFR India rose 50 to US $1400 / T. the external market recovered, and Lido supported PVC to continue its high-level operation.
In terms of spot, at present, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 electric stone in China is mostly around 9000-9300 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9240-9350 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9250-9350 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9300-9360 yuan / ton; Local market prices rose.
In terms of futures, PVC futures prices rose strongly to above 9300 this week, driving the rise of spot market prices. On August 12, the opening price of v2109 contract was 9325, the highest price was 9365, the lowest price was 9280, the position was 290659, the settlement price was 9320, yesterday’s settlement was 9230, up 90.
region workmanship 8 / 12 (yuan / ton) 8 / 9 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks
East China Calcium carbide method 9270-9370 9200-9280 + 70/+90 Ex warehouse
south China Calcium carbide method 9300-9350 9240-9300 + 60/+50 Ex warehouse
North China Calcium carbide method 9100-9160 9000-9050 + 100/+90 Delivered
southwest Calcium carbide method 9100-9200 8950-9050 + 150/+150 Delivered
International crude oil, on August 11, the international oil price rebounded continuously and rose for two consecutive days. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $69.25/barrel, up $0.96 or 1.40%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $71.44/barrel, up $0.81 or 1.0%. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories fell last week, improved U.S. employment data and improved liquidity boosted fuel consumption, and the Biden government said it would not support U.S. oil companies to increase production, and supply expectations were good for oil prices.
Ethylene, August 11, European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1368-1375 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1255-1263 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton, August 11, American ethylene market, FD American Gulf quoted 977-996 US dollars / ton, down 121 US dollars / ton, recent American ethylene market fell, demand was average, Asian ethylene market on August 11, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 946-956 USD / T, down 20 USD / T; CFR Southeast Asia quoted 981-991 USD / T, down 20 USD / T. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia have mainly fallen. Affected by the rising price of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the later stage.
For calcium carbide, on August 12, the factory price of Northwest calcium carbide was temporarily stable, the price of upstream blue carbon increased slightly, the cost support was good, the downstream PVC market was consolidated at a high level, and the demand for calcium carbide increased. In the future, calcium carbide rose slightly, and a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia began. The output of calcium carbide decreased and the supply was in short supply.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost is high and in short supply, there is no pressure on PVC inventory, coupled with the strong external market and the strong drive of futures, the spot market is actively pushed up, but in the off-season demand, the operating load of downstream products industry is still not high, and it is difficult to follow up, so it is expected to curb some of the rise. It is expected that there will be more support in the short term, and the PVC market may continue to rise steadily.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |