Price trend:
According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and adjusted in a narrow range in July, and the spot prices of various brands did not rise or fall much. As of July 31, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 17800 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.56% over the average price at the beginning of the month and 37.60% over the same period last year.
Factor analysis:
In terms of raw material styrene, the domestic spot price fluctuated in July, falling more or rising less. At the beginning of June, the price was in the stage high range. Due to the correction of international crude oil, the price of pure benzene fell sharply, and the cost of styrene fell. In the second half of July, the cost side of crude oil chemical chain was mainly consolidated and operated, and the cost side of styrene was generally supported. In addition, several styrene units resumed production after short repair in the month, and there was an expectation of new production capacity in the industry. Under the expectation of increased supply, the market gradually weakened. Although there was some demand improvement in the market at the end of the month, the follow-up of the main terminals was slow and the demand was difficult to increase. Spot procurement tends to be cautious, and the desire to catch up is not strong. Styrene is expected to continue to weaken in the near future.
Upstream butadiene: in July, the overall growth of domestic butadiene market was large, the growth was concentrated in the middle of the previous month, and there was a slight correction at the end of the month. In July, affected by the rise in the external market, the strong prices of domestic suppliers boosted the prices of merchants. In addition, the downstream increased the load, supporting the sharp rise of middlemen’s offer, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market. There was rising resistance in the yard in the latter ten days. Affected by the typhoon, the shipment of some domestic export sources was delayed, and there were many short-term shutdown of downstream devices, and the short-term market expectation was empty. With the weakening of downstream inquiry intention, the focus of spot price continues to decline. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s phase II unit was put into operation, and Gulei Petrochemical also had a start-up plan in mid August. The medium-term performance of the supply side was short, further aggravating the downward pressure on the market. Business analysts predict that butadiene market may enter the downward channel.
In July, the domestic ABS market was generally stable, and the monthly amplitude of spot price was only 1.7%. The upstream market fluctuated, and it weakened at the end of the month. The ABS cost side market was general. In the first half of the month, the capacity loss caused by the overhaul plans of Shandong Jianghai, Jihua and Tongliao chemical industry and the overhaul plan of Tongliao chemical industry tightened the market supply, pushing up the prices of some brands. At the end of the month, the manufacturers gradually returned to work. Judging from the recent accumulation of finished product inventory, the overall supply of goods is in an incremental state. In addition, the market momentum is not strong, the profitability of the industry is general, the market momentum decreases, the demand shrinks, and the spot price decreases.
Future forecast:
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Business analysts believe that the ABS spot market adjusted and operated in a narrow range in July, the trend of raw materials is OK, and the support for ABS cost is still. The supply support gradually weakened in the latter ten days due to the resumption of many units. At present, the demand for goods in the lower reaches of the industry is general. Under the stalemate, the market loses its orientation, the mentality of the industry has changed to cautious wait-and-see, and the on-site inquiry and actual trading have decreased compared with the previous. It is expected that the recent ABS spot market may adjust downward.