On July 27, the average price of spandex was 79800 yuan / ton, up 12200 yuan / ton or 18.05% compared with that on April 27. The overall price of spandex showed an upward trend, up 156.59% year-on-year. The domestic market price of spandex is running strongly. According to the data collected by wind from China chemical fiber economic information network, the average price of spandex 40d in the first half of this year was 58787 yuan / ton, up 101% year-on-year from 29199 yuan / ton in the same period in 2020. At the end of June, the price was raised to 71500 yuan / ton, a record high since August 2010.
On July 26, the spandex commodity index was 181.36, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 179.02% from the lowest point of 65.00 on July 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-07-01 to now)
From the upstream, from January to May this year, spandex continued to rise, mainly due to the rise of its raw material PTMEG (polytetrahydrofuran) and the pull of demand. PTMEG is the main raw material of spandex, accounting for 80% of spandex raw materials. Affected by the control of overseas epidemic and the recovery of demand, oil prices rose in the first half of this year, and the raw materials for PTMEG production were refined from oil. Since this year, PTMEG has increased by 124%. Since May, the demand has become stronger and stronger, especially sportswear, yoga clothes, swimsuit, etc. Benefiting from the scale effect of large refining and chemical industry, the rise of spandex price and the great increase of demand, many chemical fiber listed companies have “reported good results” in the first half of this year.
Business analysts believe that the bottom of spandex’s recent cost correction has more support in the future. When the downstream demand is expected to be good, spandex is expected to maintain a high business cycle, the demand side promotes the superposition supply to increase slightly, and the spandex market may continue to operate at a high level. Since April 18, 2021, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average to start the upward trend. At present, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. It is estimated on July 25, 2021 that the probability of operation situation change (i.e. the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is only 1.90%.
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