According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on July 20 was 37.59, down 1.48 points from yesterday, down 62.41% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 37.79% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now
Data monitoring shows that on July 20, the main contract of HuJiao 09 was significantly reduced by 650 yuan / ton, and the spot price of domestic all latex was reduced by 500-600 yuan / ton, with a single day reduction of about 4%. According to market data, the price of domestic latex in East China is generally reduced by about 500 yuan / ton: in 19, the price of Baodao whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Guangken whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Sinochem whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Yunxiang whole milk was 12700-12750 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of 3L glue in Vietnam was 12450-12500 yuan / ton, In the past 20 years, Thailand hongmanli offered about 17500 yuan / ton of tobacco glue.
Factor analysis: affected by the sharp drop of international crude oil, commodity futures have been greatly adjusted. Shanghai Rubber fell 650 yuan / ton on the 20th. The domestic spot price of rubber was adjusted along with the market. The Shanghai and Qingdao markets were generally reduced by about 500 yuan / ton. Macroscopically, rubber, as a kind of futures, is greatly affected by the crude oil market. The crude oil fell more than 7% at night, and commodity futures have been greatly adjusted, so rubber is inevitable. Recently, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States was affected by the mutant strains, and the prevention measures were strengthened. The local economic recovery was once again severely tested, and the demand for raw materials and commodities showed a decreasing trend. In terms of output, Hainan and Yunnan are in the traditional seasonal production increasing period, and the supply side pressure is increasing rapidly; Overseas, Southeast Asia has been greatly affected by the recent epidemic: according to Thailand’s news on the 20th, affected by the spread of delta mutant virus, the world’s three largest rubber producing countries, namely Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, have reduced their rubber production by 4-5% due to curfews and city closures. Thailand’s rubber Bureau said that the local rubber price had fallen slightly due to the epidemic, But now it’s starting to get better. Downstream, automobile data — according to the statistical analysis of China Automobile Industry Association, in June 2021, the production and sales of domestic commercial vehicles decreased significantly year on year. In terms of vehicle types, the production and sales of freight cars decreased significantly year on year, while the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly year on year. In June 2021, 388000 and 446000 commercial vehicles were produced and sold, with a month on month decrease of 8.3% and 7.4%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.3% and 16.8%.; Operating rate data – on July 16, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 59.85%, up 17.58 percentage points from last week, down 8.98 percentage points from the same period of last year, and down 15.09 percentage points from the same period of 2019. The starting load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 56.38%, 11.37% higher than that of last week, 8.36% lower than that of the same period of last year, and 14.83% lower than that of the same period of 2019. In terms of import and export, the high shipping costs and the lack of vessels still have a great impact on the import volume of rubber in China’s market, the export delivery cycle is extended, and the domestic tire export pressure continues. In terms of inventory, the outstanding thing is the high inventory of finished products of tire factories, which is currently in the off-season of demand, and it is difficult to boost the demand for raw materials before the golden nine silver ten.
Future forecast: the adjustment range of natural rubber is relatively large, and it does not have the basis of continuous large decline. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by short-term low volatility.
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