1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s block list, the weakness of aniline Market weakened this week. On July 2, the price in Shandong was 10200-10300 yuan / ton; The price of aniline was 10300-10500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, and 10000-10200 yuan / ton in Shandong on July 9; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10200-10400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 2.58% lower than last week, 27.43% higher than the beginning of the year, and 137.8% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of cost and international aspect, the international oil price continued to decline this week, while the price of pure benzene in Asia fell. Domestic, this week, East China port inventory continued to decline, pure benzene spot market remains tight supply. Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was stable at 8750 yuan / ton within the week, providing certain support to the market. In terms of demand, most of the downstream products are at a loss, and they have strong resistance to high price pure benzene, and the enterprises generally ship. On Sunday (July 11), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8750 yuan / ton (average price was 8630 yuan / ton), and the average price fell 140 yuan / ton or 1.6% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 173.97%.
The price of nitric acid rose this week. On Friday (July 9), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2400 yuan / ton, up 2.13% from last week and 65.52% from the same period last year.
This week, the price of aniline went down. Jinling aniline plant is restarted and will be delivered soon; Wanhua chemical’s new aniline plant entered the market, the later supply is expected to increase significantly, and the market is bearish in the later stage. The downstream MDI market rebounded slightly, but the starting load decreased, the demand for aniline was weak, and the support was insufficient.
3、 Future expectation
In terms of cost, the short-term supply will continue to be tight, but the downstream market is difficult to break through in the short term. It is expected that the pure benzene market will be frozen next week.
Aniline market supply is expected to increase significantly in the later period, but it is difficult for downstream demand to make a big breakthrough in the short term. It is expected that the aniline Market is deadlocked and may go down. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.
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