1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of aniline was stable after rising this week. On June 25, the price in Shandong was 10000-10500 yuan / ton; The price of aniline was 10000-10300 yuan / ton in Nanjing, and 10200-10300 yuan / ton in Shandong on July 2; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10300-10500 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 0.65% over last week, 30.8% over the beginning of the year, and 144.09% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of cost, short positions were replenished at the end of the month, and the inventory of pure benzene enterprises decreased rapidly; East China main port inventory continued to decline; Due to the limited automobile transportation in Shandong, it is difficult to arbitrage at low prices, and the spot supply in the market is tight, so the price continues to rise. In addition, crude oil, the external market continued to rise, external news support is good, pure benzene trend is strong. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised twice, a total of 600 yuan / ton to 8750 yuan / ton. On July 4, the price of pure benzene was 8653-8800 yuan / ton (the average price was 8770 yuan / ton), which was 650 yuan / ton or 8% higher than that of last week; 181.09% higher than the same period last year
The price of nitric acid rose during the week. On Friday (July 2), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2350 yuan / ton, up 1.44% over last week and 62.07% over the same period last year.
Pure benzene continued to rise, aniline cost pressure increased; In the downstream, rigid demand is maintained, some devices are shut down, and the overall demand is weakened. However, the main aniline enterprises are still in maintenance, some enterprises maintain load reduction operation, the supply on site is tight, aniline rose first and then froze in the week.
3、 Future expectation
In terms of cost, crude oil and external market prices are high and strong, with good support for pure benzene. The main port inventory in East China is still low in the short term, and some domestic devices are overhauled. It is expected that the short-term spot supply will remain tight. Sinopec has a high price and strong market support at the bottom. But most of the downstream is in a state of loss, and the follow-up of pure benzene is general, limiting the rise of pure benzene. Overall, it is expected that the price of pure benzene will remain at a high level next week, and it may fall later.
There are many aniline units in load reduction operation or shutdown maintenance, which support the price of aniline. However, the demand for aniline decreased due to the shutdown of some downstream plants. It is expected that aniline will be in a stalemate next week, and the price of aniline will fall with the restart of the main plant in the later stage. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.
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