1、 Price trend
The price of aniline continued to rise this week, according to the data of the business club’s block list. On June 18, the price of aniline was 9400-9580 yuan / ton in Shandong and 9600 yuan / ton in Nanjing; On June 25, the price of aniline was 10000-10500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 10000-13000 yuan / ton in Nanjing, with an average price increase of 8.45% over last week, 12.41% over the beginning of the month, 29.96% over the beginning of the year and 126.47% over the same period of last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of cost, crude oil and external market continued to rise, with good support from external news. At home, there are large aromatics plants in China with unplanned production reduction and supply reduction. In addition, the inventory of local refineries in Shandong Province is low, and the spot supply is tight on the spot. Therefore, the market is bullish. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 400 yuan / ton to 8150 yuan / ton. On Sunday (June 27), the price of pure benzene was 8050-8150 yuan / ton (average price was 8120 yuan / ton), which was 370 yuan / ton or 4.77% higher than that of last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 130.68%.
The price of nitric acid continued to rise this week. On Friday (June 25), the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2316.67 yuan / ton, up 0.72% from last week and 59.77% from the same period last year.
The aniline plant of many enterprises has been running under reduced load or shut down for maintenance, and the continuous reduction of supply has led to the continuous rise of aniline price.
3、 Future expectation
In terms of cost, in terms of international market, crude oil and external market prices are high, with good support for pure benzene. In China, the large aromatics plant is shut down for maintenance, the enterprise inventory is low, and the on-site supply is still in a tight situation in the short term. Downstream: the downstream is in a state of loss, the follow-up of pure benzene is general, limiting the rise of pure benzene. Overall, it is expected that the price of pure benzene will remain high next week, and the price may fall later.
In the short term, aniline prices are still supported due to a large number of load reduction operation or parking maintenance devices. However, the export of aniline is limited, and with the downstream entering the off-season, the price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.
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