According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on June 11 was 18836.67 yuan / ton, up 3.10% from the recent low of 18270 yuan / ton on June 4; The average market price on May 10 was 20043.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.02%, compared with the high level in the cycle.
Taking the average market price of aluminum ingot at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, it has increased by 19.78%.
It is reported that in late May, affected by the news that the regulatory authorities recently interviewed key enterprises in the black and non-ferrous industries, the current policy is mainly to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and comprehensively curb the unreasonable rise of commodity prices. The voice of policy departments has raised the market’s expectation of the later policy regulation, and the commodity market sentiment shows signs of cooling down.) Domestic spot aluminum ingot prices began to decline, now began to stabilize, even slightly up last week.
Industry chain import and export data at a glance
Raw material end:
Imports of bauxite decreased in April
According to customs data, in April 2021, China imported 8.7395 million tons of bauxite, a year-on-year decrease of 12.16% and a month on month decrease of 13.45%. Guinea is the largest supplier. In April, China imported 4.7502 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85% and a month on month decrease of 17.14%. China’s imports to Australia in April were 2.9452 million tons, up 1.95% year on year and down 4.83% month on month. Indonesia’s import volume in April was 1.044 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 48.03% and a month on month decrease of 13.68%.
Downstream products:
In April 2021, the import volume of aluminum alloy not forged and rolled was 281139 tons, with a 36.10% month on month growth and a 165.07% year-on-year growth; From January to April, the imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 942800 tons, up 130.9% year on year.
China’s total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April were 437200 tons, a decrease of 14.48% on a month on month basis and 8.82% on a year-on-year basis. From January to April this year, China’s exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 1.7269 million tons, up 5.8% year on year.
In the first four months, the price of domestic aluminum industry chain was high, there was arbitrage between internal and external prices, and the import quantity increased significantly year-on-year.
List of domestic aluminum industry chain output data
According to China’s National Bureau of statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 3.35 million tons, up 12.4% year on year and 3.9% month on month. From January to April, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 13.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%.
From January to April 2021, the cumulative output of aluminum products was 18.942 million tons, an increase of 19.60%.
Among them, in April, the operating rate of aluminum enterprises was 57.72%, which increased by 6.80 percentage points on a month on month basis, and decreased by 1.75 percentage points compared with the same period in 2020; The operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises was 78.23%, increased by 5.81 percentage points on a month on month basis, and increased by 2.63 percentage points compared with the same period in 2020; The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingot enterprises was 56.00%, increased by 5.66 percentage points on a month on month basis and 14.29 percentage points on a year-on-year basis. The operating rate of aluminum pole line enterprises was 51.6%, an increase of 8 percentage points on a month on month basis and a decrease of 8 percentage points on a year-on-year basis.
In the first four months, affected by price factors, the output of aluminum ingot industry chain showed an overall upward trend.
List of terminal consumption data
Real estate data
In April, the national real estate sales area was 143 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.2%; The sales amount was 1523.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.5%. From January to April, the national real estate sales area was 503 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.1%; The sales amount was 5360.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 68.2%; Compared with January to April in 2019, the accumulated sales area and sales amount increased by 19.5% and 37% respectively.
Auto industry data
In April 2021, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.234 million and 2.252 million respectively. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased by 8.7% and 13.5% year on year, and the automobile market continued to show a stable and good development trend.
Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in April were 216000 and 206000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.8 times respectively. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 750000 and 732000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6 times and 2.5 times.
Domestic terminal consumption was relatively good in the first four months.
Future forecast
Supply side:
With China’s aluminum industry speeding up the implementation of the carbon peak target and the promotion of the local government’s energy consumption “double control” policy, the domestic aluminum ingot price has been promoted to a certain extent. On the one hand, the dual control policy of energy consumption is becoming stricter, which affects the production schedule of new capacity to a certain extent; On the other hand, the price goes up and the capacity operating rate goes up.
Recently, in terms of domestic production capacity, the enterprises expected to resume production are Zhongrui in Gansu Province and Hengkang in Shaanxi county. On the whole, affected by the power restriction in Yunnan Province, it is estimated that the production capacity increment of electrolytic aluminum in the near future will be small.
Demand side:
The investment in real estate development shows a trend of high before and low after the year, and the overall annual data is expected to rise slightly; For the automobile consumer, it is expected that with the alleviation of chip shortage, there will be a large-scale growth in the second half of this year. Overall, the demand side is relatively good.
Business analysts believe that the current price of 18000-19000 yuan / ton is a stable fluctuation range formed by the market game. It is estimated that in the near future, the price of aluminum ingots will be mainly around 18500 yuan / ton
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