According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on June 10, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9100 yuan / ton, down 0.55% compared with 9150 yuan at the beginning of the month, up 43.59% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In the first ten days of June, the PVC market fluctuated at a high level and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. Recently, the price of PVC futures rebounded and rose, while the spot market didn’t show any significant follow-up behavior. Most of them adjusted in the range of 50-150 yuan / ton. Some of the lower quotations rose slightly, and the high-end prices also decreased. The overall market quotation was around 9100 yuan / ton, and the focus was still high. This week, the market is strong, PVC futures prices pull fast, the spot market continues to move big and small, wait-and-see mentality gradually strong. Near the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand for replenishment in the downstream has increased to a certain extent, the transaction atmosphere has slightly improved, and the demand support is acceptable; At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide rose, the support of cost side became stronger, and some PVC devices were still under repair, the supply was still good, which supported the strong trend of PVC. With the recovery of PVC maintenance enterprises in the future, and the downstream demand entering the off-season, the supply and demand side may be weak, and the short-term high shock trend will continue, so it is difficult to be optimistic in the future.
In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 9150-9400 yuan / ton. In Hangzhou area, the pvc5 calcium carbide interval is 9100-9200 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 9100-9230 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC in Guangzhou is 9200-9300 yuan / ton; Markets fluctuated in a narrow range.
In terms of futures, the price has risen sharply, but not for a long time, and the spot market has not risen significantly with the same frequency. June 10 v2109 contract opening price: 8795, the highest price: 8815, the lowest price: 8685, position: 389602, settlement price: 8755, yesterday’s settlement: 8630, up 125.
region varieties technology June 10 remarks
East China PVC Calcium carbide process 9160-9210 yuan / ton Delivery
south China PVC Calcium carbide process 9200-9300 yuan / ton Delivery
North China PVC Calcium carbide process 9050-9150 yuan / ton To
southwest PVC Calcium carbide process 9100-9250 yuan / ton To
For international crude oil, on June 9, the international oil price remained stable, and the settlement price did not change much compared with the previous trading day. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was 69.96 US dollars / barrel, down 0.09 US dollars or 0.1%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 72.22 U.S. dollars / barrel, flat in the last trading day. Previous data showed that the U.S. gasoline inventory increased significantly, limiting the pace of oil price rise. However, the market is looking forward to the start of the summer driving season in North America, and the oil price is still strong.
Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market as a whole showed a downward trend. The price of ethylene in Asia remained stable. As of the 9th, CFR closed at US $957-965 / T in Northeast Asia and US $917-925 / T in Southeast Asia. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at 1298-1309 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 1253-1262 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fell. As of the 9th, the price was 583-595 US dollars / ton. Recently, the external market of ethylene fell. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole external market of ethylene is poor, the trading atmosphere is light, the transaction is weak, and the focus of ethylene market is constantly moving down.
On June 10, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable. The reference price of calcium carbide was 4266.67, up 2.4% compared with June 1 (4166.67). The price of orchid charcoal in the upstream fell slightly, the cost support was weak, the PVC market in the downstream rose slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide increased. Calcium carbide rose slightly in the future.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business news agency believe that with the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, the demand for replenishment in the downstream has increased to a certain extent. At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide has risen, and the favorable situation of maintenance has not completely subsided. In the short term, the trend of PVC is strong, and the price may rise slightly. However, with the supply and demand weakening step by step, the market is hard to be optimistic.
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