1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on May 31 was 3593.33 yuan / ton, which was 536 yuan / ton higher than 3056.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with an increase rate of 17.56% in the month and the maximum amplitude of 28.2% in the month, with an increase of 46.83% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In May, the domestic liquefied natural gas market rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of about 46%, showing remarkable performance in the off-season period of consumption. It can be roughly divided into three stages: rapid rise in the first half of the month, continuous decline in the second half of the month, slight rebound near the end of the month, and overall price trend of rise fall rise. At the end of the May Day holiday, the restrictions on the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals were lifted, the demand for vehicles increased after the holiday, the maintenance of superimposed liquid plants increased, the supply tightened, the inventory of enterprises was low, and the price of imported gas rose, which led to the straight-line rise of domestic liquid price. However, the rally lasted for a short time. After reaching the peak of this month in the middle of this month, it began to decline gradually. Together with the simultaneous decline of several commodity prices, it recovered the gains in the first half of this month and fell back to the cost line for a time. Near the end of the month, the price of feed gas rose to 1.96-1.98 yuan / m3, and the cost support was enhanced. In addition, the demand in southern China increased, the maintenance of liquid plants and the import gas continued to rise. The favorable factors boosted the price of liquid again.
In June, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, but the demand in the off-season was limited, and the increase was small. On June 2, the price of LNG in Inner Mongolia was 3450-3650 yuan / ton, Shaanxi 3560-3720 yuan / ton, Shanxi 3650-3770 yuan / ton, Ningxia 3600-3700 yuan / ton, Henan 3750-3900 yuan / ton, Hebei 3540-3850 yuan / ton, and the price of LNG in various regions decreased significantly.
region Specifications Quotation (yuan / ton) date
Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3450-3650 June 2nd
Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3560-3720 June 2nd
Shanxi liquified natural gas 3650-3770 June 2nd
Ningxia liquified natural gas 3600-3700 June 2nd
Hebei liquified natural gas 3540-3850 June 2nd
Henan Province liquified natural gas 3750-3900 June 2nd
Downstream products rose more than fell less:
Methanol. On June 2, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell sharply, closing at 2506 yuan / ton, down 49 yuan / ton or 1.92% compared with the closing of the previous trading day. Methanol spot market was mainly volatile, with a slight decline in some areas. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of June 2, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2632 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 2.83% and a year-on-year increase of 64.02%. Business community methanol analysts expect the short-term methanol market to enter a high finishing stage.
Urea, June 2, Shandong urea market rose, demand: agricultural demand rose; Affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories took goods actively, and the new orders of enterprises followed up well. Supply side: some urea plants shut down for maintenance, and the supply side is tightened. Enterprises have a strong attitude of supporting prices.
Dichloromethane. In May, the dichloromethane market rose first and then fell, and the whole market rose. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of dichloromethane was 3630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, then rose to 4263 yuan / ton on May 17, and dropped to 3833 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Overall, the end of the month was 5.60% higher than the beginning of the month. At present, the risk of domestic dichloromethane market has been released in the early stage. At present, the cost side, supply side and demand side are all supported. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be high and firm in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of LNG from business news agency believe that: in June, the price of gas source rose, the support of cost side gradually increased, and the upward trend of imported gas boosted the atmosphere of domestic liquid market. In addition, in the early stage, the liquid price fell to a low level, and the manufacturers had strong willingness to support the market and actively followed up. However, due to the influence of off-season factors, it was difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the rise of LNG market may slow down and tend to be stable in the short term.
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