1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. On May 23, the price of toluene was 5926 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 30), the price was 5800 yuan / ton, down 126 yuan / ton or 2.13% from last week; It was 59.35% higher than that of the same period last year.
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2、 Analysis and comment
Domestic market, spot market demand weak, lack of guidance on the floor, weak market. In terms of external market, Asia’s external market was weak. As of May 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 740 US dollars / ton, down 27 US dollars / ton, or 3.52%, compared with May 21; The price of imported toluene in East China was 762 US dollars / ton, down 27 US dollars / ton, or 3.42%, on May 21.
In terms of crude oil, the resumption of Iran’s crude oil exports may be delayed, the recovery of market demand for crude oil is promising, and the US Gulf of Mexico oil field may be closed due to the storm, which boosted the rise of oil prices. However, the severe epidemic situation in India still restricts the recovery of demand. Brent rose $2.62/barrel, or 3.92%, on May 21; WTI rose $2.52 per barrel, or 3.96%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of East China TDI stopped falling and rose. Domestic products were priced at 14200 yuan / ton, up 1.43% over last week and 27.93% over the same period last year. At present, the domestic market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is light, the offer of the goods holder is stable, the price is down, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is general.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 56.1% year on year. As of May 28, closing prices in Asia were 826-828 USD / T FOB Korea and 844-846 USD / T CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
The crude oil market is full of uncertainty, the downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. Toluene market has a negative attitude and may continue to decline in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.
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