In the two recent executive meetings of the State Council, the rise of the bulk commodity market has been “named” continuously, which has aroused great concern in the market. However, the chemical industry market has shown a continuous decline in the past two weeks. According to the monitoring of business news (100ppi. Com), the chemical industry index was 1041 points on May 28, down 3.97% from the weekly peak of 1084 points (2021-05-13), It is 74.08% higher than the lowest 598 point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now
In the first four months, the profits of industrial enterprises increased by more than 100% year on year. Under the strong recovery of the manufacturing industry, the prices of bulk commodities rose sharply. The inflation problem aroused great concern in the market. After the middle of May, the country continued to name the price rise of bulk commodities, and the market cooled rapidly. According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 21st week of 2021 (5.24-5.28), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; There were 37 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and 9 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 9.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were melamine (- 31.41%), bisphenol A (- 17.81%) and acetone (- 11.45%), showing a trend of more decline and less rise for two consecutive weeks. The 21 week average rise and fall was – 1.09%, and the 20 week average rise and fall was – 0.67%.
Weak supply and demand pattern and deep decline of Melamine Market
The melamine market has been in a downturn recently, with a sharp decline in the market. At present, the operating rate of melamine is high, but the downstream demand is weak, the shipment of enterprises is under pressure, the supply pressure continues to accumulate, dragging the market, and the market price is frequently low. However, the downstream is cautious about low price follow-up, and just needs to purchase. Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the recent upstream urea price is strong, the cost side impact is relatively limited, supply and demand dominate the market, the demand side performance is weak, the market performance is still under pressure, and it is expected that the short-term melamine market will be weak.
Poor terminal demand bisphenol a market fell 21% on the 5th
Bisphenol a market in East China continued to fall. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market negotiation on the 28th was close to 20000 yuan / ton, down 21% this week. The overall performance of bisphenol a market was extremely poor. Although the shippers kept reducing their offers, there were few market inquiries. The daily market low prices were emerging one after another. Rumors of low prices continued to affect the market mentality. In the middle of the week, Changchun chemical reduced 5000 yuan / ton and implemented 22000 yuan / ton, which increased the negative factors. Transaction situation is even worse, the mentality is seriously frustrated, short-term hard to say good. In the view of the business community, on the one hand, due to the depressed terminal demand market, the bearish attitude of the cargo holders is serious. Under the influence of the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the terminal’s wait-and-see mood for raw materials increases. On the other hand, the cost side fell, and after the name of the bulk market, the chemical industry as a whole showed a downward trend, the bad news under the industrial chain was diffuse, and the market mentality was seriously frustrated. The business community expected that the short-term bisphenol a market would continue to decline, and the offer of East China market was about 20000 yuan / ton.
Sharp contradiction between supply and demand
The acetone market fell significantly this week. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the acetone factory in East China fell by 15.64%, while the market situation fell by 6.6%. Therefore, the factory adjustment was relatively large this week, and the market continued the previous decline trend. From the perspective of business community, it is difficult to improve the contradiction between supply and demand in the acetone market in the short term. First, the supply of acetone is sufficient in the short term. Under the same plant, the phenol has been stable and small move in the near future, and the enterprise inventory is low. Therefore, the operation rate of the phenol ketone plant will remain high. It is expected that the supply of acetone will be sufficient in June; Second, it is difficult to say that the demand is optimistic, and the digestion of the terminal field is insufficient; The three room raw materials pure benzene and propylene have obvious downward trend, the phenol ketone industry chain has obvious downward trend, and the chemical industry has just started to decline for two consecutive weeks. Generally speaking, there are few positive factors. In the case of sharp contradiction between supply and demand in acetone market, it is difficult to reverse the market. It is expected that the short-term propylene ketone will maintain 5500-5700 yuan / ton.
Since the beginning of this year, the rapid rise of commodity prices has had a negative impact on economic expectations, inflation has increasingly affected people’s production and life, and national policy control has effectively curbed short-term speculation. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on the action plan for deepening the price mechanism reform during the “14th five year plan” period, which has taken many measures in a timely and effective manner, It will help to guide rational expectations in the market and squeeze speculative bubbles away. In this context, the short-term chemical products enter the cyclical rational callback stage. After a four month surge in 2021, the repair period will continue for some time. The company expects the chemical industry index to continue to decline in June.
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