Since the beginning of this year, the global monetary quantitative easing, supply and demand factors have jointly driven the commodity market to a strong upward trend. Steel, nonferrous metals and other sectors have successively broken through the ten-year high. With the increasing expectation of policy supervision, the crazy commodity market has cooled significantly, and the current price of this cycle has collectively “stepped on the brake”.
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According to the monitoring of the business community, as of May 21, the BPI of the commodity price index was 1055 points, 10 points lower than that at the beginning of the week, 1.31% lower than the highest point of 1069 points in the cycle (May 13, 2021), and 59.85% higher than the lowest point of 660 points (February 3, 2016)（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)
In terms of specific products, there are 114 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices, accounting for 52.05% of the total. They are mainly concentrated in chemical industry (36 kinds in total) and steel (17 kinds in total), and the commodities with a decrease of more than 5% are mainly concentrated in steel plate; The top three commodities were isooctanol (- 12.97%), I-beam (- 10.80%) and channel steel (- 10.77%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 1.03%, which is the first decline in nearly seven weeks.
The domestic futures market also continued to “cool down”. On May 21, the black series went green again in a large area. By the end of the afternoon, thermal coal in the main contract fell 9.31% to 713 yuan / ton, which is a rare one-day decline since the thermal coal futures were listed. The main contracts of coking coal, coke and iron ore also fell to varying degrees. Coking coal fell 5.74% to close at 1701 yuan / ton; Coke fell 4.3% to 2371 yuan / ton; Iron ore fell 3.39% to close at 1096.5 yuan / ton.
When the hot commodity market comes to an end, is it a sign of peaking or a short-term accumulation? According to the business association, the trend of carbon peak and environmental protection production restriction industry is strong, and the downstream demand side is still strong, especially for steel, coal, copper and aluminum industries and some chemical products, it is hard to say that the commodity bull market is over. It is expected that in the future, the trend of different kinds of bulk commodities is expected to be differentiated, and the power of comprehensive and sustained rise is limited.
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