1、 Price data
According to the data from the business club, the price of petroleum coke products from domestic refineries continued to rise. The average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market on May 23 was 2358.67 yuan / ton, up 3.06% from 2288.67 yuan / ton on May 17. On May 23, the petroleum coke commodity index was 183.45, which was the same as that of yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 174.26% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the storage of local refined petroleum coke was low, and the price continued to rise. The downstream demand of low sulfur coke was poor, and the price fell slightly. Aluminum enterprises have good profits, some refineries have been overhauled, and supply and demand have double effects. The price of medium and high sulfur coke continues to rise.
Upstream: the sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s concern that the surge of new cases in Asia will further depress the demand for crude oil, as well as the new progress of the US Iran nuclear agreement to release the expectation of increased supply; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.
Downstream: the downstream demand of carbon enterprises is stable, and the market price is stable, but the rising price of raw materials puts pressure on the cost of carbon enterprises; The price of calcined coke was basically stable; This week, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the lower reaches fell, reaching 18460.00 yuan / ton as of May 23; Recently, the silicon metal market is greatly affected by the factors of supply and demand. The relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced, and the short-term silicon price is still strong.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that has increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (5.59%), petroleum coke (3.06%) and coking coal (2.92%). A total of 11 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three declining products were liquefied natural gas (- 7.60%), WTI crude oil (- 5.25%), Brent crude oil (- 5.24%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.04%.
According to the petroleum coke analysts of business society, the storage of petroleum coke from local refining company is low. At present, the market supply and demand are good, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is still high. It is expected that petroleum coke will be high in the near future.
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