1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of pure benzene stabilized after rising this week. On May 9, the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (average price 7720 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (May 16), the price of pure benzene was 8150-8300 yuan / ton (average price 8230 yuan / ton), with an average price of 510 yuan / ton, or 6.61%, higher than last week; It was 148.64% higher than that of the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In the early stage, the external price was high, the spot supply in the domestic market was tight, and the price of pure benzene was supported. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised twice, with a total increase of 500 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton. The rapid rise in the price of pure benzene led to increased resistance in the downstream, and the market’s enthusiasm for catching up fell, and the price stabilized in the second half of the week.
In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (May 14) was 1043.67 US dollars / ton, down 16 US dollars / ton, or 1.51%, from May 7; The import reference price of East China was US $1050 / T, which was the same as that on May 7.
In terms of crude oil, it was reported within the week that the colonial pipeline in the United States was forced to close due to hacker attacks, but the positive impact of the closure was short-lived, and the international oil price fell back after rising. The market is concerned about the impact of the Indian epidemic on demand recovery. On May 7, Brent rose 0.235 USD / barrel, or 0.34%; WTI rose 0.48 USD / barrel, or 0.74%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene rose first and then fell this week. On May 16, the price of sample enterprises was 10150 yuan / ton, up 1.5% compared with last week, and up 92.72% compared with the same period last year. Styrene in the cost support and tight spot supply, driven by the spot to maintain a strong.
Aniline: this week aniline stable price consolidation. Within the week, Huatai plant was restarted and market supply increased. On May 16, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, up 146.76% over the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the global economy and demand are expected to improve as a whole, and crude oil has an upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the epidemic situation, OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.
Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: cost side, strong shock of crude oil, tight spot situation of pure benzene is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, and cost support is strong. Some maintenance plants of styrene will resume production next week, and the supply is expected to increase. However, the port still has the expectation of inventory decline next week. The styrene inventory is still at a low level, and the spot circulation is still tight. Therefore, under the support of cost and tight spot supply, the styrene will still fluctuate strongly in the short term.
On the market side, the tight domestic spot supply pattern will continue in the short term. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. On the downstream side, the excessively fast rising price leads to the compression of downstream profit space and the limitation of chasing up. Overall, the action force of pure benzene is relatively reduced, but the fundamental support still exists. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will be stabilized in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |