1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose continuously in the first ten days of this month, and fell sharply in the second ten days. The price at the beginning of the month is the monthly low price, 7944 yuan / ton, and 8046 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.28%; April 24 is the monthly high price, 8619 yuan / ton, the monthly amplitude is 8.49%.
2、 Analysis and comment
According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The price rose steadily on the 6th, rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton on the 16th, stabilized on the 23rd, fell about 50 yuan / ton on the 26th, fell about 150 yuan / ton on the 27th and 28th, and dropped 150-350 yuan / ton on the 29th. Today, most of the prices are stable, The current market turnover is between 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8000 yuan / ton. On April 20, the external market of propylene in the United States dropped significantly again, which may have a certain impact on the domestic market. Asian propylene prices remained stable on the 29th, with limited impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.
Recently, the international crude oil market has witnessed constant events, and the price has fluctuated. The crude oil price rose significantly on April 28 and 29, which has a certain positive impact on the propylene market.
This month, PP declined slightly and then rebounded slightly, with a monthly decline of 3.34% and a monthly amplitude of 4.80%, which had little negative impact on propylene.
Acrylic acid rebounded after a decline this month, with a monthly decline of only 1.92% and a monthly amplitude of 8.31%.
In the first ten days of this month, propylene oxide was mainly stable, occasionally declined and then recovered. In the last ten days, it rose, with a monthly increase of 3.28% and a monthly amplitude of 5.98%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.
The epichlorohydrin market was stable in the first ten days of this month, rose sharply in the middle of this month, and fell steadily in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 19.47% and a monthly amplitude of 30.00%, which played an obvious role in the rise of propylene.
In the first half of this month, the domestic n-butanol price was generally stable with occasional decline, and rose steadily in the second half of this month, with a monthly increase of 18.18% and a monthly amplitude of 23.81%, which had a great positive impact on the propylene market.
This month, the trend of ISO octanol is similar to that of n-butanol. It is also stable in the first half of the month, with occasional decline. It rises steadily in the second half of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.30% and a monthly amplitude of 17.36%. It also has a certain positive impact on propylene.
Isopropanol rose steadily after falling back in the first ten days of this month, with a monthly rise of 3.35% and a monthly amplitude of 5.30%, which had little positive effect on propylene.
The price of phenol in East China rose by 4.45% this month, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.
The quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market fell slightly, with a monthly decline of 5.17%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.
3、 Future forecast
Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: Generally speaking, there are not many domestic stocks, some units are overhauled, the crude oil market is rising significantly, the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the market is more than empty. Polypropylene futures are general. It is expected that propylene will stop falling after May day, and there is a possibility of stopping falling and rising.
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