1、 Price quotation
According to the data of business news agency, cotton spot market rose this week, and the price of 3128b lint on the 23rd was about 15719 yuan / ton. It was down 0.43% on a month on month basis and up 38.15% on a year-on-year basis.
2、 Market analysis
Domestic: this week, cotton spot showed an upward trend of shock. On the 23rd, China’s cotton price index 3128b was 15703 yuan / ton, up 152 yuan / ton from last Friday. According to statistics, the national cotton planting intention area in March was 43.6755 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.99%, a decrease of 2.0232 million mu compared with the previous survey, and a decrease of 4.4 percentage points compared with the previous survey. At the end of March, the total turnover inventory of cotton in China was about 3.676 million tons, a month on month decrease of 383.3 million tons, a slight increase compared with last month, lower than 287.2 million tons in the same period of last year. As of April 16, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 3.644 million tons, a decrease of 63000 tons (1.69%) compared with last week.
On April 23, the weather forecast in Xinjiang showed that there was light rain or sleet or snow in most areas of cotton producing areas in Xinjiang. The precipitation cooling and continuous low temperature weather may have an impact on the growth of cotton crop sowing and emergence. The later period depends on the specific weather conditions, and the short-term cooling has little impact on the growth of cotton.
International: the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) released an export sales report on Thursday, which showed that the net sales of U.S. upland cotton exports in 2020 / 2021 increased by 103100 bales in the week ending April 15, down 16% from the previous week and 44% from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, although the weather drought in Texas supported ICE Futures rebounded to a new high, the weekly US cotton export report released was disappointing, and ice futures turned downward as of the 22nd.
According to the return of overseas orders last year, the demand for low count yarn varieties of pure cotton and polyester cotton is expected to increase. According to market news, recently due to the impact of the epidemic in India can not guarantee normal delivery, making some foreign orders back home, this news stimulate cotton prices. As a big textile country, the epidemic situation in India is difficult to control. In the long run, cotton in the second half of the year is basically good, providing support for the cotton price.
Futures: this week, Zheng cotton yarn rose at the same time. On April 23, the settlement price of zhengmian main contract 2109 was 15745 yuan / ton, up 385 yuan / ton from last Friday. On April 23, the settlement price of the main cotton yarn 2109 contract was 23210 yuan / ton, up 430 yuan / ton from last Friday.
3、 Downstream industry chain
With the rise of cotton price, some traders and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets tentatively increased the cotton yarn quotation by 100-200 yuan / ton, but the transaction price was mainly based on the original quotation. Due to the advance of orders, most of the traditional peak season orders were overdrawn before March. Because of the repeated epidemic in Europe, another part of orders had not yet been issued. In April, new orders were not issued enough and the demand was flat. The inventory of yarn and grey cloth increased slightly but did not reach a high level. The enthusiasm of downstream raw material replenishment is still not high, the stock of imported cotton in the port is also at a high level, and the demand is about to turn into the off-season, and the increase of domestic orders is limited.
At present, the spot supply of cotton is sufficient, and the news of additional issuance of import cotton quota has not been settled. In the short term, the raw material inventory of downstream textile enterprises is sufficient, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is expected that the market will stabilize in the future.
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