1、 Price trend
The price of aniline continued to decline this week, according to the data of the business club’s block list. On April 11, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11000-12900 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton. On April 18, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10200-10500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 10500 yuan / ton.
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of cost, this week, pure benzene followed the trend of styrene, falling first and then rising. At the beginning of the week, the decline of styrene led to the weakening of pure benzene in East China. In the second half of the week, styrene futures rebounded. The spot supply of styrene in some areas was tight, and the price rose, while pure benzene rose. This week, the port is still in the channel of destocking. Although the speed of picking up goods is slowing down, the number of new arrivals is less. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 6850 yuan / ton, which strengthened the bottom support and boosted the market mentality. On Sunday (April 18), the price of pure benzene was 6750-6950 yuan / ton (the average price was 6820 yuan / ton), which was 156 yuan / ton or 2.34% higher than that of last week, and 103.58% higher than that of the same period last year.
The price of nitric acid this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (April 16), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2233.33 yuan / ton, up 8.94% compared with the beginning of the month and 47.25% compared with the same period last year.
The price difference between aniline and cost side is wide, which is less affected by the fluctuation of cost side. Market supply and downstream demand are the main factors affecting the price of aniline. Aniline prices continued to fall this week. Aniline plant operating rate is high, the market supply is sufficient, the enterprise price reduction row inventory. Aniline prices fell, driving the downstream follow-up turned positive, the second half of the week to maintain horizontal consolidation.
3、 Future expectation
In terms of cost, Sinopec’s high price supported the pure benzene market. Next week, the downstream styrene plant will be restarted, which will support the demand for pure benzene. Overall, short-term pure benzene prices continue to follow crude oil, styrene price fluctuations, prices firm. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
Another 100000 t / a aniline plant in Jinling Dongying was restarted, and the market supply of aniline in Shandong is expected to continue to increase; the 30000 T / a aniline plant in Yangnong, Jiangsu was shut down for maintenance at the weekend, and the supply in East China is expected to decrease. Overall, the market is cautious and wait-and-see, aniline may still maintain a weak and stable trend next week. Pay attention to whether there is a purchasing plan in the downstream of the coming May Day holiday. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.
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