1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s block list, pure benzene rose continuously in the first half of this week, and the price fell slightly in the later period. On April 4, the price of pure benzene was 6450-6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6520 yuan / ton), on Sunday (April 11), the price of pure benzene was 6373-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6664 yuan / ton), the average price increased 144 yuan / ton or 2.21% compared with last week, and 109.56% compared with the same period last year.
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2、 Analysis and comment
This week, pure benzene rose first and then fell with the trend of styrene, and the port inventory of both decreased. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port continued to decline, with only a few new arrivals. The port is still in the channel to the warehouse, and the domestic supply is tight. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 200 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton, and the bottom support was stronger.
In terms of external market, this week’s external market rose first and then fell. On Friday (April 9), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 861.67 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton or 0.58% compared with April 2, and the import reference price in East China was 875 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton or 1.16% compared with April 2.
Crude oil, this week’s crude oil long short game, price shocks. Good news: US commercial crude oil inventory fell, China and US economic data were strong; bad news: OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places was severe. On April 1, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 2.13 USD / barrel, or 3.46%.
Downstream: styrene: this week, the price of styrene rose first and then fell, which was lower than that of last week. On April 11, the price of sample enterprises was 8833.33 yuan / ton, which was 2.03% lower than that of last week; the price was 70.42% higher than that of the same period last year. Crude oil fluctuated strongly, pure benzene and ethylene prices rose, and cost support was good; port inventory was still declining, and new production capacity was offset by device maintenance; domestic supply increment was limited, and spot was tight, which supported the high price of styrene. However, the downstream has a resistance to high price styrene. Although the operating rate rises collectively, the terminal is still in a wait-and-see state, and the purchase is just needed, and the transaction is sluggish.
Aniline: the price of aniline fell this week. The price of downstream polymerization MDI and rubber additives fell, the profit margin narrowed, the resistance to high price aniline was strong, and the demand remained rigid. Jinling Dongying and Huatai aniline plants restart, market supply increases. Under the pressure of long and short market, aniline is in a weak position. On April 11, the price of aniline was 11000-12900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11700 yuan / ton in Nanjing, down 6.15% from last week and 142.38% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, although OPEC + decided to increase production, the market is still optimistic about the future demand prospect of oil market, and crude oil inventory may gradually enter the process of depolarization in the second quarter. Biden’s Government previously launched a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and is currently brewing $2.3 trillion in infrastructure stimulus measures. With the acceleration of vaccination in Europe, the economy will gradually enter the recovery track.
Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: in terms of cost, crude oil is expected to pick up in the future. On the supply side, in April, there were more maintenance of domestic styrene plants, and the new production capacity will be offset by the reduced production capacity. Domestic supply may increase limited, and the pressure is not big. In addition, the import volume of terminals will maintain the low level of the contract. On the demand side, although the overall operating rate of the downstream has picked up, the terminal is still in a wait-and-see state, and the demand for styrene remains rigid, and the demand side has not recovered. It is expected that styrene will still run with strong vibration in the short term.
In the later stage, the arrival quantity of pure benzene is still limited, but the speed of port delivery is expected to slow down. Sinopec’s inventory is tight and its price is expected to be firm. The price trend of pure benzene is still greatly affected by crude oil and styrene. With the entry of new styrene plants, the demand for pure benzene has a certain support. On the whole, the price of pure benzene will be able to move up next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
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