According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.00, down 1.37 points from yesterday, down 61.00% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Data monitoring shows that on March 1, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 15375 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the price of rubber was 13150 yuan / ton, with a downward range of 14.475%.
Judging from the output of new rubber, a small amount of new rubber has been cut in China’s main natural rubber producing areas, and the serious insect pest in Yunnan has delayed the official cutting. However, the weather in Hainan this year is good, and some of them have been cut. Although the quantity is small, under the following good weather, a large number of new rubber made in China may be on the market in the middle and late April. Although the main production areas in Southeast Asia still stop cutting season, it is not far away from the opening of new rubber for more than a month. The market is increasingly worried about the new rubber listing, and the confidence is frustrated. The market of natural rubber is obviously weakening.
From the perspective of downstream demand, the purchasing situation of downstream factories has improved in the near future. From the perspective of tire enterprises, data statistics show that in the third week of March, as of March 25, the starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 78.03%, up 0.34% from the previous week, up 13.74% from the same period last year; the starting load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.35% from the previous week, up 10.62% from the same period last year. From the perspective of automobile data, the average daily retail sales of passenger car market in the third week of March reached 46000 units, which was 5% higher than that in the third week of March 2019, and the performance was relatively good; the first three weeks of March this year were basically the same as that in 2019. However, compared with the first three weeks of January, the trend is relatively weak. The haze and sandstorm weather in North China in mid March is expected to stimulate sales growth again. However, recently, the global automobile industry chain has been affected by the “core shortage” all over the world. For example, as of the 31st, due to the lack of chips, Weilai automobile Hefei plant stopped its seven day automobile production; Tesla Model Y’s price has increased by 8000 yuan due to the “core shortage”; moreover, many automobile enterprises have also faced the shutdown since the second half of last year. Of course, some auto companies in China have started to develop chips on their own. BYD has started to develop chips since 2005. Geely, great wall, Wuling and other state-owned auto companies have also started to develop chips on their own. However, according to the prediction of market research institutions, the shortage of automotive chips will not be eased until the second half of 2021. During this period, the production of automotive enterprises will be affected, and the demand for raw rubber will also be affected.
From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 175902 tons (+ 900) as of March 26, and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 170920 tons (+ 300). As of March 21, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to drop slightly, but the inventory outside the zone picked up, mainly due to the slow down of delivery after the downstream took the goods the week before. Due to less overseas production and higher operation rate of domestic tire factories, it is expected that the later period of going to the warehouse can still be maintained.
From a policy perspective, in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing the rubber price, the Thai rubber authority has taken new measures, the most important of which is the fresh latex management project. Rubber Research Institute of Thailand cooperates with universities to develop the matching technology of latex preservation, which aims to improve the shelf life of fresh latex from 4-5 days to 1-2 months. In this way, rubber farmers do not have to rush to sell all the fresh latex at one time, so that there will not be too many goods pouring into the market, and the raw material supply of the processing plant in the low production period can be guaranteed. The Thai government will set up centralized storage tanks for latex and provide financial subsidies for rubber farmers. The goal is to withdraw more than 200000 tons of latex from the market. In addition, the Thai rubber bureau also launched a more mobile sales mechanism for cup rubber, and set a market reference standard for cigarette film, so as to help the smooth operation of the price system of various rubber types.
With regard to the future market, the business community believes that in the short term, the market has a strong worry about the new rubber market after cutting, which has a greater impact on the market. At the same time, the severe epidemic prevention situation in foreign countries, weak demand and the shutdown caused by the lack of “core” of automobile enterprises are also affected by multiple factors, such as the transmission factor of crude oil affected by more interference factors, the trend of shock, and the supporting role of natural rubber Insufficient, weak market. In the short term, we are still wary of the transmission effect of the substantial change of crude oil on natural rubber. From the middle and late of next month, we are wary of the significant impact of the new rubber on the market.
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