Commodity index: on March 30, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.90, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.78% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 10.18% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)
The monitoring found that in March 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China fluctuated and decreased. As shown in the figure, on March 1, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and on March 30, the mainstream price was 1718.57 yuan / ton, with a decrease rate of about 4%. The water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province have been in normal production after the Spring Festival holiday. However, due to the requirements of environmental protection policies, since the middle of this month, all the water treatment plants in Gongyi have stopped production for rectification. At present, the manufacturers have sufficient inventory. The biggest influencing factor of this month’s market: since the start of the year, the downstream demand has gradually recovered, the supply of goods is still sufficient, and the market is generally weak. However, some manufacturers have been unable to support due to strict environmental inspection. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict environmental inspection.
Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the data from the business community, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China rose in March. On March 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 172 yuan / ton, and on March 30, it was about 197.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 15%. The upstream liquid chlorine market rose by 17% this month, with strong cost support. The maintenance of downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid increased, and the demand decreased. The hydrochloric acid supply enterprises had more inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the market supply exceeded the demand. The support of downstream silica is relatively low, and the monthly price fluctuation is no more than 1%. The support of ammonium chloride is strong, and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinshan” hydrochloric acid is gradually increasing, resulting in the fluctuation of hydrochloric acid up about 15% this month.
Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend. Around the 10th, Shandong’s civil gas market showed the most obvious increase. It began to fall continuously in the middle of the month and rebounded again at the end of the month. Affected by the changes in crude oil prices and downstream gas demand, the LPG market showed a significant rise and fall trend this month. According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on March 1 was 3616 yuan / ton, while on March 30, the price was about 3966 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 7%. In the near future, crude oil rebounded and the price was obviously driven. However, the following weather became warmer, the demand was weak, and the future market of liquefied gas was weak, so its impact on the cost of water treatment products was not so prominent.
Downstream demand: at present, many local enterprises are undergoing strict inspection of environmental protection, and the downstream demand is still gradually increasing; the manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province should stop production according to the requirements of environmental protection, and the inventory is gradually consumed. In the spring of the golden three silver four, the requirements of various industries for environmental protection are improved, and the demand of water treatment industry will also increase.
Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, the two sessions in 2021 will be “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” It is written into the government work report for the first time, striving to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutralization” by 2060. Under this background, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will also be improved. Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical requirements will be improved The technical threshold is constantly rising; the production stop and rectification actions are frequent, the supply side can not avoid being affected, and the price is expected to rise. At the same time, in the global central bank water triggered inflation trend, raw material prices have been rising. To sum up, under the current situation of gradual recovery of demand and sufficient inventory, the price of polyaluminum chloride is mainly stable for the time being; with the extension of shutdown time and excessive inventory consumption, some manufacturers will continue to be short of supply, and it is expected that the downstream procurement cost will gradually increase in the second, third and fourth quarters. However, it can not be ruled out that some manufacturers can not continue to support due to the long shutdown time. It is suggested that manufacturers should improve their technical level as soon as possible and meet the requirements of environmental protection.
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