Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index was 93.18 on March 18, which was flat with yesterday, down 13.02% from 107.13 (may 08, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and 12.41% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)
The data show that since the end of the Spring Festival in 2021, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area have resumed production, and the production of polyacrylamide has already returned to normal; the large increase in the cost of acrylonitrile in the early stage led to a high market of polyacrylamide, with an upward range of more than 10%, and then a slight correction, falling to within 10%, about 9.84%.
According to the monitoring of business society, the current domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) polyacrylamide mainstream quotation: cation main report 15000-16000 yuan / ton, anion main report 11000-12000 yuan / ton.
Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage factors, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way. Especially since the Spring Festival, the market has risen sharply. The domestic price has reached the highest level in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 is 12100 yuan / T, and the daily report of March 10 is 16500 yuan / ton, up 4500 yuan / T, with a range of 36%; however, due to the impact of the upstream price reduction in the near future, 1 On May, it was down 250 yuan / ton, and the market mainstream quotation was reduced to 16250 yuan / ton, and the current increase has dropped by 2 points, about 34%. In terms of supply, domestic manufacturers concentrated maintenance in February, reduced supply and tight supply. After years, foreign demand increased, driving the price of domestic acrylonitrile to rise greatly; it is reported that the high price greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of manufacturers’ production. The main equipment: the material feeding of Haijiang, Shandong Province was reopened on March 12; Fushun Petrochemical was originally scheduled to cancel the overhaul in April, which was reported that Shanghai SECCO’s overhaul plan in April was cancelled It is also possible to delay the stroke.
Downstream demand: affected by the high price of upstream raw materials, the cost of polyacrylamide has increased greatly. From the perspective of the conductivity of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the space for polyacrylamide rise is at least 4000 yuan / ton; however, since the Spring Festival, water treatment project is not the peak period of construction, especially at the end of heating season, the demand is weak, and the trend of polyacrylamide price rise is not sustained. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the problem of polyacrylamide price increase The previous drop was about 500 yuan / ton.
Post market forecast: business society analysis believes that the bulk raw material market is greatly affected by inflation and demand due to the overall macroeconomic environment. Raw material end, from the perspective of upstream petrochemical industry chain, the price of acrylonitrile is high in the long term, and the cost of polyacrylamide will still be at a high price; in view of the increasing demand of water treatment project in the later stage, the market of polyacrylamide will be mainly volatile in the medium and long term; the short-term demand end is weak, the price is stable, some of which is down, and the overall strength still needs time.
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