Since late January, the market of bisphenol A has soared to a new peak in the chemical industry sector. After the Spring Festival, bisphenol A has entered a new peak in the year of the ox. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, in 2021, the market of bisphenol a rose from 13225 yuan / ton on January 1 to 24666 yuan / ton on February 25, an increase of 87%. Since the afternoon of the 24th, the market has entered a quiet period. Although the market is slightly loose on the 25th, it is still at a high level, and it is difficult to go down later.
Before the festival, the main reason for bisphenol A’s “bull market” was the lack of market supply and the warming demand. After the sharp rise and fall in 2020, the market supply is extremely tight. At this time, the expected improvement of the downstream epoxy resin industry is mainly driven by the rise of resin after the wind power makes up for the fall. Before the festival, the bisphenol a market is greatly higher, reaching a high of 19000 yuan / ton near the Spring Festival. However, there are many uncertain factors after the Spring Festival, and most traders dare not stock, while factories are not Most of the production is in the supporting downstream devices, and the external sales volume is limited. After the Spring Festival, the market of bisphenol A has reached a new high in the past ten years. The main reasons are as follows:
First of all, the most important thing is the surge of crude oil during the holiday, coupled with the extremely cold weather in the United States, which forced more than 50 enterprises to stop production unexpectedly. In February, international crude oil futures continued to rise. As of February 25, WTI crude oil rose by 21.11% and Brent crude oil rose by 20.24%. At present, the international oil price has reached a new high in nearly 13 months. Oil prices continue to rise. At the macro level, there is pressure from the depreciation of the US dollar. At the micro level, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) continue to spare no effort to limit production, and the US commercial crude oil inventory has declined for several consecutive weeks. All these pave the way for the rise of oil prices. On the demand side, on the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation, vaccination has been promoted, and the economic recovery is expected to continue to heat up. In the past two weeks, the United States has been hit by snowstorms. Under the influence of extremely cold weather, the refinery units in Texas have been shut down. The rapid decline of production has gradually evolved into a short-term energy crisis, which has also accelerated the pace of oil price rise.
Secondly, from the perspective of cost, the consumption rate of phenol in the production unit of bisphenol A accounts for 0.87, the production cost of bisphenol A accounts for a large proportion, and the price of bisphenol A is strongly supported by the upward trend of phenol after the festival. After the Spring Festival, the first day of the bill rose sharply, affected by the holiday crude oil surge, the first working day after the festival, all products are making a good start, the market heat is rising, especially in the chemical industry circle, the price rise information has opened a variety of screen mode. Entering the year of the ox, the phenol market has been growing all the way to new heights. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the phenol Market offer was 6675 yuan / ton on February 17. So far, the phenol Market offer was 8587 yuan / ton, an increase of 28.65%. Moreover, the plant is also making constant efforts. After the festival, Sinopec’s North China phenol has been increased by nearly 2000 yuan / ton, and the East China phenol plant has increased by 1600 yuan / ton, implementing 8500 yuan / ton. The East China plant’s offer has increased from 6790 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton, an increase of 25%. Acetone, another important raw material, has gone through a wave of upward trend before the festival. After the festival, the guiding price of acetone in North China of Sinopec has been increased by 1200 yuan / ton, while that in East China has been increased by 900-1200 yuan / ton, and 9000-9300 yuan / ton has been implemented. Raw materials continue to rise, cost side support bisphenol a market continues to rise.
On the demand side, first, the downstream epoxy resin continued to be supported by the terminal wind power industry, and continued to march forward. As of February 25, the negotiated price of liquid resin in East China reached 31000 yuan / ton, up 16.8% compared with 26500 yuan / ton on February 17. Solid resin is also on the rise, with the guiding price of 26500 yuan / ton. With the support of raw materials and the demand of downstream wind power and coating industry, the epoxy resin factory has been in the state of suspension of offer, and has been focusing on historical order production. Second, the downstream PC products. On the whole, the industry started at 60%. After the restart of Dafeng device, the operation was stable, and the raw materials rose sharply before the festival. However, this product is difficult to digest. Most factories are short of raw materials. After the festival, the raw materials continue to rise, and the PC upward speed lags behind, but it also keeps rising with the pace. On the whole, the rigid demand procurement is the main, and the transaction activity still needs to be improved.
From the perspective of the whole phenol ketone industry chain, the overall rise was the main trend. The upstream pure benzene and propylene showed a significant upward trend after the festival, followed by the intermediate and downstream products. From the macro point of view, WTI crude oil increased by 21.11%, Brent crude oil increased by 20.24%, and the surge of crude oil after the festival formed a good support for petrochemical products.
From the perspective of business community, bisphenol A is extremely dazzling among many rising chemicals. From the surge of crude oil during the holidays to the extremely cold weather in the United States, from the surge of phenol ketone industry chain as a whole to the frequent rise of major products in the chemical industry circle, the market of bisphenol a has reached a ten-year high. At present, on the one hand, the arrival time of import and export goods is delayed, and the profit contracts of factories are cleaned up near the end of the month. On the other hand, the downstream market is facing a new situation It will take time to digest, and the market of bisphenol A will stay for a short time. However, in March, Taiwan Changchun and South Asia bisphenol A have maintenance plans, and the market circulation spot resources are limited, while the import source is delayed. The market spot resources are still tight in March. The business community expects that there will be high consolidation or continue to push up in March. However, from the perspective of the downstream, the current downstream cost pressure is huge, the loss is serious, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the risk is increasing In addition, the downstream market demand and acceptance of the industrial chain will determine the bisphenol a market.
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