After the Spring Festival, phenol market soared. According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the phenol Market offer was 6675 yuan / ton on February 9, 7712.5 yuan / ton on February 20, and phenol rose by 15.54% after the festival. In terms of petrochemical plants, the listing offer was actively raised after the festival. Take the plant offer in East China as an example, the daily offer was 6790 yuan / ton on February 9, and 7460 yuan / ton on February 20, of which the mainstream offer was adjusted to 7500-7550 yuan / ton on February 20 Only Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to maintain 7200 listing and did not adjust temporarily, with an increase of 9.87% after the festival. Before and after the Spring Festival, the offers of major factories and mainstream regions are as follows:
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Trend of phenol Market in main regions of China
Offer of major factories and mainstream areas around the Spring Festival
After the Spring Festival, on the first working day, the factory led the rise and boosted the market. The traders followed the offer and pushed up. With the support of the upstream and downstream, the phenol market was pushed up again near the weekend. The downstream enterprises actively resumed work and the market enthusiasm increased. They easily crossed the 7000 yuan mark and reached 8000 yuan. The reasons are as follows
Price trend of factories in East China around the Spring Festival
First, the cost side helped push up. Let’s start with crude oil. On February 17, the WTI oil price was at $61.14/barrel, and Brent was at $63.34/barrel, another year’s high. On February 18, the Brent oil price once exceeded $65 / barrel, and the international oil price hit a 13 month high. According to the monitoring of business news agency, since February, the WTI oil price has increased by 15.96%, and Brent oil price has increased by 16.15%. On the one hand, the effect of state-controlled oil production is ideal. On the other hand, the inventory of the United States and China has declined. Especially under the influence of cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries has declined, the inventory of refined oil has decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil has increased, which has a positive effect on oil prices. At present, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and it is still necessary to continue to observe the implementation rate of production reduction in the later period. In addition, the cold wave in the United States has a temporary impact on refineries, and the output is expected to rebound in the later period, so there is resistance for the oil price to continue to rise in the short term.
In terms of raw material pure benzene, the crude oil rose sharply, and the pure benzene rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, on February 9, Shandong pure benzene factory offered 5340 yuan / ton, and on February 20, Shandong pure benzene offered 6150 yuan / ton, with a 15.17% rise in pure benzene after the festival.
After the Spring Festival, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose sharply, and the price continued to rise. The price was 7060 yuan / ton on February 14, 7196 yuan / ton on February 17 and 7761 yuan / ton on February 20, with an increase of 9.94% on the 7th and 7.85% on the 4th.
Second, the downstream products reached a new high. When it comes to downstream products, bisphenol A should bear the brunt. So far, the market of bisphenol A has risen to 21000-22000 yuan / ton. Since 2020, bisphenol A has risen by 57% continuously, with a year-on-year increase of 93.5%. The price before the festival is unreachable, but surprisingly, it has reached a new high after the festival. As shown in the figure below, the market price trend of bisphenol A can be seen. Since the year of the ox, the rising trend of bisphenol a festival has reached a new high in the following years. At present, it is difficult to ease the shortage of goods in the market. The downstream epoxy resin market is rising at the same time, and the factory purchases on demand. The operators have a positive attitude and continue to be bullish. In the short term, from the perspective of supply and demand side, it will maintain the rising trend and the high level of goods will continue to dominate.
The chemical industry continued to rise after the festival, and the industrial chain became red. From the point of view of the business community, the phenol market has a good start in the new year. After the surge, there are many conflicts in the downstream. At present, the market offer is close to 8000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the port will continue to supplement next week. Although the supply side will continue to supplement, the business community expects that the phenol market will continue to push up in a narrow range or stabilize at a high level under the overall higher situation.
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