1、 Price trend
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According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable in the first half of this month, then dropped sharply after rising in the second half of this month, and rose slightly at the end of this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7223 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7068 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.14%; on January 19 and 20, the monthly high price was 7495 yuan / ton, and on January 28, the monthly low price was 6973 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 6.97%.
2、 Analysis and comment
According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December. It began to rise on New Year’s day, and rose by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. Later, it was stable or rose, and generally showed a ladder like rise. This month, it has risen by about 250-300 yuan / ton. On the 21st, it began to decline continuously, and on the 28th, it has fallen by 500-550 yuan / ton. On the 29th, it was stable. On the 30th and 31st, the price rose. Now, the market transaction is between 7000-7350 yuan / ton The mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is too high, and the shipment situation is cold.
On January 28, crude oil prices fell slightly, with limited impact on propylene.
PP fluctuated steadily in the first ten days of this month, then rose rapidly after falling in the middle ten days, and continued to stabilize in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 2.45% and a monthly amplitude of 3.94%. The futures market was also slightly cold, with limited impact on propylene.
Acrylic acid prices stabilized after the downward trend this month, with a monthly decline of 3.73% and a monthly amplitude of 4.41%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.
This month, the market of propylene oxide rose slightly and then fell steadily, with a monthly decline of 9.35% and a monthly amplitude of 11.38%, which had a negative impact on propylene.
Epichlorohydrin market showed a ladder like decline this month, with a monthly decline of 12.80%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.
This month, the domestic n-butanol price dropped sharply in the first half of the month, and then fluctuated and stabilized in the second half of the month, with a monthly decline of 10.07% and a monthly amplitude of 20.50%. As there was a steady correction in the second half of the month, it had a slight negative impact on the propylene market.
The trend of octanol in this month is similar to that of n-butanol. It is also a rapid correction after the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, it fluctuates and stabilizes, with a monthly decline of 12.68% and a monthly amplitude of 22.82%, which has a negative impact on propylene.
In the first half of this month, isopropanol went down and then fluctuated and became stable. In the second half of this month, isopropanol showed a rapid upward trend, with a monthly rise of 7.85% and a monthly amplitude of 27.31%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.
The phenol Market in East China fluctuated and stabilized after the downward adjustment at the beginning of this month, and rose significantly at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.91% and a monthly amplitude of 9.60%, which had a little positive effect on propylene.
The acetone market in East China fell at the beginning of this month and then showed a ladder like upward trend, with a monthly increase of 21.54% and a higher monthly amplitude of 42.34%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.
3、 Future forecast
Propylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: Overall, there is a certain pressure on the current inventory, crude oil prices slightly down, downstream polypropylene futures market is a little cold, trading is not high, downstream market mainly wait-and-see, the market is slightly better than bad, so it is expected that the future market or in situ shock of propylene in the near future, not excluding the possibility of a small increase.
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