1、 Price trend
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According to the price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber was strong this week (1.29-2.5). As of February 5, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 6590 yuan / ton, up 3.67% from last Friday’s price of 6357, and down 7.5% year on year. The quotation of most manufacturers has been increased by 200-400 yuan / ton. In the futures market, the main short fiber Futures (2105) closed higher on February 5, closing at 6776, 158 or 2.39% higher than last Friday’s closing at 6618. This week, international oil prices rose for five consecutive days, which led to a significant rise in PTA and glycol prices. With the increase of the cost, the number of shutdown and maintenance of the plant increased, the downstream goods were prepared, and the polyester staple fiber spot and futures showed a significant increase. However, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the actual market transactions decreased, and polyester staple fiber may be stable and strong before the festival.
2、 Factors affecting price
1. PTA: the domestic PTA spot market trend is stronger this week. At the end of this week, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3995 yuan / ton, up 3.59% from the beginning of this week, and down 14.31% from the same period last year. International oil prices rose for five consecutive days this week. The cost rises sharply, PTA price is firm. With the coming of the Spring Festival, the terminal loom factories are gradually on holiday, and the start-up is declining. They have a more wait-and-see attitude towards raw materials, and the market transactions are decreasing.
2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market rose this week. At the end of this week, the average ex factory price of oil based ethylene glycol in North China was 4816 yuan / ton, up 5.09% from last Friday, almost flat on a year-on-year basis. Port inventory continued to decline, international oil prices continued to rise, glycol prices rose sharply. Affected by the policy of celebrating Chinese New Year in situ, the operation rate of ethylene glycol plant increased, and the operation rate of downstream polyester was also higher than that of previous years. However, the operating rate of terminal looms has declined obviously. It is expected that the polyester market will be under pressure after the Spring Festival, and the market of ethylene glycol may be affected.
3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. This weekend, the spot market average price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 14167 yuan / ton, the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.35%. Recent pure polyester market quotation is stable, Spring Festival holiday, transaction decline. Downstream weaving factories and textile raw material traders have basically finished preparing goods before the Spring Festival, with more downtime and holidays, and the market is gradually cold.
3、 Future forecast
Business analysts believe that since the new year of 2021, crude oil, PTA continued to rise, the cost of polyester staple fiber support is obvious. With the end of downstream goods preparation, the polyester market gradually entered the vacation stage, the lack of actual transactions in the market, the market before the festival or stable trend, the industry is more optimistic about the supply and demand side of the market after the festival. Before the Spring Festival, affected by the increase of risk aversion in the market, the price rise of polyester staple fiber may be limited. However, at present, the crude oil market is still strong, the recovery of demand in the peak season after the Spring Festival is still possible, and the short-term polyester staple fiber may continue to show a strong oscillation trend.
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