1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 29, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2118 yuan / ton, and on January 1, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2116.67 yuan / ton, up 0.6% in the month and 0.06% year on year
According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 29, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, and on January 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.05% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 13.18%
2、 Market analysis
In January, the price of map increased by 0.6% within the month, with little increase. In the first half of the month, the price was relatively stable. With the arrival of the inflection point in the second half of the year, some enterprises suspended their quotation and received orders in limited quantity. In addition, the enthusiasm for downstream compound fertilizer preparation increased, the price of raw materials increased, and the price of monoammonium phosphate increased. At present, the price of 55% ammonium powder in Anhui Province is 2105 yuan / ton. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% powdered ammonium is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium in Henan Province is about 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong Province is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton.
In January, the price of DAP increased by 2.05%. The trend of DAP was strong mainly due to the tight supply of goods in the yard, the rising raw materials, and the stable demand for winter storage. At present, the mainstream price of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2600-2650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of 64% diammonium in Gansu Province is 2650 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 2900-2980 yuan / ton. In Guizhou Province, the mainstream ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium is 2850 yuan / ton, while in Heilongjiang Province, the first station advance collection quotation of 64% diammonium rises to 2950-3050 yuan / ton.
The market of raw material phosphate rock rose in January, and the transaction price of phosphate rock in the plant moved towards the high end. The price increase was mainly in Guizhou and Guangxi, with an increase rate of 10-20 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the overall adjustment of phosphate rock market was limited, and the operation was mainly stable. With the coming of the festival, some terminal downstream enterprises in the domestic phosphorus ore market have stopped production one after another, and due to transportation restrictions, the enterprise trading atmosphere maintains the current situation. Most of the mines concentrate on the supply of early orders. The phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the overall stable operation of the domestic phosphorus ore market is the main factor in the short term.
In January, the price of phosphorus chemical products rose generally. According to the price monitoring of business society, there were 5 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities falling in January 2021. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (2.88%), diammonium phosphate (2.05%) and phosphate rock (1.68%), with an average rise and fall of 1.6% this month.
3、 Future forecast
According to the analysts of business news agency, the price of ammonium phosphate rose steadily in January, mainly due to the rising price of raw materials, the increasing support of cost, the tight supply of goods in the market, and the stable demand. In February, the atmosphere of price adjustment is still strong. The number of enterprises that stop reporting monoammonium phosphate increases, and the price rises again. The enterprise owners send orders, and the pressure of shipment is not big, so they are willing to support the market. DAP supply is not much, superimposed export demand is good, manufacturers have strong confidence in price support, and the industry is optimistic about the later market. To sum up, it is expected that the market of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate will remain warm in the short term, and the price is expected to rise.
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