Trend analysis
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According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of cobalt rose sharply in January 2020, and the market of cobalt recovered to rise in the new year. As of January 30, the cobalt price was 324666.66 yuan / ton, up 19.07% from 272666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1); the new year’s Cobalt market ushered in a sharp rise, the biggest increase since March 2017.
Trend of cobalt price in LME Market
It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price rose sharply in January. After a year’s fluctuation adjustment of cobalt price in 2020, the global cobalt market recovers in the new year, and the international cobalt price re welcomes the surge. The rise of international cobalt price is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt market has increased momentum.
Domestic mobile phone production and sales data
According to the data released by China Academy of information technology, in December 2020, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 26.595 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%; from January to December, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 308 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. In December 2020, the domestic market 5g mobile phone shipment was 18.2 million, accounting for 68.4% of the mobile phone shipment in the same period. According to data released by IDC, mobile phone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2020 reached 385.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16 million units. In December, the sales of mobile phones declined, but the year-on-year decline was reduced. The decline of mobile phone market shipment slowed down, and the mobile phone market showed an upward trend. The rising global mobile phone shipment in the fourth quarter eased the tension in the mobile phone market. 5g mobile phones are gradually gaining strength, and the mobile phone market may usher in a wave of replacement. 5g mobile phones will become a new growth point in the market. However, the sales of mobile phones in the whole 20 years still have a large decline compared with that in the 19 years, and the mobile phone market will be in a better shape The market has limited support for the cobalt market. With the outbreak of 5g mobile phones, the mobile phone market is expected to rise in 2021, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rise sharply, which is more favorable for the cobalt market.
Domestic new energy vehicle market
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 235000 and 248000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 55.7% and 49.5% respectively. In 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and 10.9% respectively. The annual market is better than expected. The rise of new energy automobile industry in the weak environment of automobile industry reflects the prospect of new energy automobile industry, and also indicates that new energy automobile has entered an outbreak period. New energy automobile is expected to enter a surge period in the 21st year. China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of new energy automobile will increase by 40% in 2021. The explosion of new energy vehicle industry and the surge of demand in cobalt market are favorable to the cobalt market, and the rising power of cobalt price is increased.
Global new energy vehicle market
According to EV volumz, a global electric vehicle research company, in December 2020, the global sales volume of electric vehicles was 590000, an increase of 40% on a month on month basis. In 2020, the global sales of electric vehicles will be 3.24 million, up 43% year on year. The global sales of new energy vehicles soared, which was good for the global cobalt market, with sufficient support for the rise of cobalt price.
Market Overview
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that since the new year, the cobalt market seems to be getting “stimulant”, the cobalt price has soared, and the cobalt market is booming again. But can the cobalt market last long, and what’s the space for the cobalt price to rise in the future? It still deserves our attention. From the demand side, there are signs of recovery in the mobile phone market, which is good for the cobalt market, but the overall production and sales of the mobile phone market are still slightly insufficient, with Limited good for the cobalt market, and insufficient power for the cobalt price to rise in the future; with the soaring demand for new energy vehicles, there is sufficient power for the cobalt market to rise, but the continuous growth of the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the second half of 2020 does not bring a corresponding rise to the cobalt price It remains to be seen whether the price rise is a retaliatory rise or a surge in demand. The recovery of the global cobalt market also plays a stimulating role in the domestic cobalt market, which is generally good, but it still needs time to test the global cobalt Market’s recovery of 19 years. On the whole, there is sufficient momentum for the rise of cobalt market, and there is still room for the rise of cobalt price in the future, but the demand of cobalt market is still difficult to support the continuous rise of cobalt price. It is expected that the rise of cobalt price in the future will slow down, and the cobalt price will rise slowly in February.
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