1、 Price data
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As of January 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 5670.00 yuan / ton, up 1.07% from 5610.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 5700 yuan / ton.
On January 22, the naphtha commodity index was 69.98, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 31.81% from 102.62 points (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.67% from 42.24 points, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the price of naphtha from local refineries rose slightly, refineries were active in shipping, mainly in destocking.
Upstream: the US crude oil inventory increase is bad, and the global epidemic situation is still severe. Multinational restrictive measures have restrained the recovery of fuel demand. This week, WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.35% and Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.81%.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene continued to rise in China this week. The price of toluene was 3910 yuan / ton on January 17 and 4037.5 yuan / ton on January 24, up 127.5 yuan / ton or 3.71% from last week. This week, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend. The price of xylene was 4110 yuan / ton on January 17 and 4160 yuan / ton on January 24, up 50 yuan / ton or 1.22% from last week. In terms of PX market, the ex factory price of domestic PX rose this week. The domestic PX operating rate was about 60%. The average price at the weekend was 5200 yuan / ton, up 10.64% from 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.
3、 Future forecast
According to the energy analysts of business society, the naphtha market is supported by the international crude oil and domestic terminal market in the near future, but affected by the domestic epidemic, the logistics is limited, and refineries are actively de stocking at the end of the year. It is expected that the price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha will go down in the near future, with a price of about 5400 yuan / ton.
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