In terms of demand, due to energy consumption, environmental protection and other factors, the related industries in some areas of China have reduced production or even shut down in winter, resulting in weak seasonal demand. Market trading performance is not good, multi-dimensional enterprises hold rigid demand procurement, market support is weaker than the previous period. There is a certain expectation of replenishment before the Spring Festival in the downstream, but there are not many orders and the finished product inventory is high, so the willingness to stock up is not strong. It is estimated that the natural rubber market is difficult to maintain a strong operation situation, and there is a great possibility of shock consolidation or a slight downward trend. However, the effect of supporting the end consumer market is obvious, and the key position of early breakthrough is also supported.
| povidone Iodine |
Tire start to off season
Affected by the logistics block and environmental protection policy, the operating rate of domestic tire factories decreased significantly, and the downstream demand of natural rubber turned to the off-season. By the beginning of 2021, the start-up load of all steel tire was 55.71%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.31%; the start-up load of semi steel tire was 55.94%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.79%. The emergency response mechanism of heavy pollution weather in winter was launched, and tire enterprises in Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu regions reduced production and stopped production; the short-term shipping market was tight, and tire export was restricted by logistics; the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States intensified, and the demand was worried, and the import processing export drive was not enough; the terminal purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and the inventory of traders increased, so tire start-up was difficult to return to normal Level. Pay attention to the arrangement of stopping production and returning to work
The downstream tire enterprises of natural rubber are in the traditional off-season, and the schedule of stopping production and resuming work before and after the Spring Festival affects the progress of demand recovery. China’s tire manufacturing industry is mainly distributed in Shandong Province, especially in Dongying City. The local epidemic prevention and control work conference stressed that in order to ensure a good start to the economy in 2021, enterprises should be encouraged not to stop production as much as possible during the Spring Festival, and to stop production as short as possible during the Spring Festival. Those who stop production should make a plan to resume production in advance, so as to ensure that they can quickly return to the pre festival production level after the Spring Festival. According to the survey feedback of Longzhong information, the production stop and holiday plans of mainstream tire factories are relatively conservative. In view of Dongying City’s encouragement of non-stop production during the Spring Festival, most factories said that they would guide migrant workers to stay in the local area for the Spring Festival if conditions permit according to the production situation and personal wishes. According to the current situation, some tire enterprises are scheduled to reduce production and burden in late January or early February. Only a few enterprises have the phenomenon of workers returning home, and most of the factories have normal production scheduling. However, after the festival, the tire factory started to recover rapidly, facing the problem of insufficient order follow-up, increasing pressure on domestic sales and delivery, poor delivery in export transportation, and enterprises have concerns about the accumulation of inventory pressure in the later period. In any case, it is estimated that before and after the Spring Festival in 2021, China’s tire industry will not face the problem of recruitment difficulties due to the epidemic situation, which will lead to the delay in starting work and can not be upgraded to the normal level.
Auto market rebounded
According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in December 2020, the sales volume of the national automobile industry is estimated to be 2.82 million vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a month on month growth of 1.2%; in terms of market segments, the sales volume of passenger cars increased by 5.9% and the sales volume of commercial vehicles decreased by 4.4%. In 2020, the cumulative sales of China’s automobile industry reached 25.272 million units, a decrease of 1.9% over the previous year, in which the sales of passenger cars decreased by 6.1%, and the sales of commercial vehicles increased by 18%.
Affected by the automobile market cycle and public health events, the overall operation result of China’s automobile market will still record negative growth in 2020. However, with the continuous efforts of various consumption promotion policies, such as expanding domestic demand, automobile production and sales have all stopped falling, stabilized and rebounded, showing positive growth for nine consecutive months and reaching a new high this year. However, in 2020, the global passenger car tire matching and replacement market both fell sharply year on year, even the Chinese market can not save the decline of passenger car tire sales, domestic sales and exports are shrinking to a certain extent. The above facts show that there is a significant differentiation in the segmentation market of China and even the global automobile market. Although the passenger car market has a large base, the growth rate of production and sales and the consumption of rubber tires are lower than that of the commercial vehicle market. Therefore, we should focus on the changes in the downstream core demand of natural rubber.
Heavy truck sales record
According to the data of the first commercial vehicle network, in December 2020, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell about 114000 vehicles of various types, with a month on month decrease of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 24%. In view of the seasonality of the industry, this figure is not very high in the whole year, but it still sets a new record of monthly sales of heavy truck industry in the same period, exceeding the previous high of about 22000 vehicles. Since the recovery of domestic economy in April 2020, the heavy truck industry has hit a new high in monthly sales for nine consecutive times. Stimulated by a series of favorable factors, the total sales volume of the National Heavy Truck Market in 2020 will finally reach an unprecedented 1.623 million, accounting for about 70% of the global heavy truck sales volume, a substantial increase of nearly 450000 or 38% over the previous year’s 1.174 million, which is a milestone in the history of the heavy truck industry.
Just need bottom support
On the whole, the downstream demand of the rubber industry chain is difficult to recover significantly in winter, and the year is approaching. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the time arrangement for tire enterprises to stop production and take holidays. Although the demand has entered a seasonal low, the industry law is well known, and the expectation of the market should not be regarded as additional bad news. Before the Spring Festival, the manufacturers’ demand for goods still exists, the domestic rubber continues to be in the state of destocking, and the downstream moderate bargain hunting can form a certain support for the price. 70% of the direct demand for natural rubber is tire manufacturing industry, and the terminal consumption is the automobile market. The focus is on the matching tires and replacement tires required by commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks. This part supports the most important demand increment of natural rubber downstream in China and even in the world.
| Melamine |