Spot aluminum price callback 13.55%
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According to the data of business news agency, on January 20, 2021, the average market price of domestic standard aluminum ingots in East China was 14776.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.04% compared with 15726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1), and a decrease of 13.55% compared with the peak market price in 2020 (December 2), 17093.33 yuan / ton.
The current price is close to the mid to late October 2020 aluminum ingot price range.
Overview of aluminum ingot Fundamentals
1. Import and export data
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the annual export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in 2020 was 4857434.8 tons, a decrease of 15.2% compared with that in 2019; China’s export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in December was 456130.4 tons.
2. List of production capacity, output and operating rate in December
According to statistics, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum has been rising slowly since May 2020. In December, the production capacity is around 39 million tons, and the operating rate is about 90%, which is at a high level in nearly 10 years. In December, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output was about 3.3 million tons, up 8% year on year.
3. The social inventory of aluminum ingots rebounded slightly
On January 14, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 68.4 tons, an increase of 20000 tons over last week. The social inventory of 6063 aluminum rods in Foshan, Wuxi, Nanchang, Changzhou and Huzhou was 82700 tons, 3000 tons less than last week.
4. One of the domestic terminals: the trend of automobile production and sales data in 2020 is good
According to the data of China Association of automobile industry, in 2020, the annual production and sales of automobiles will be 25.525 million and 25.311 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% and 1.9% respectively, and the decrease rate will be 5.5% and 6.3% lower than that of the previous year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and 10.9% respectively, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with that of the previous year. Among them, China’s car sales in December were 2.831 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the sales of new energy vehicles in December were 248000, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%.. In addition, according to the data of the passenger Federation, the annual wholesale sales of domestic narrow sense passenger cars in 2020 will reach 19.763 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. The top three are FAW Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM. Market sales exceeded expectations, reflecting the industry’s steady recovery after two consecutive years of decline.
Influencing factors of future trend of aluminum ingot
1. The consumption of aluminum ingots is expected to weaken in the early stage of the Spring Festival. Affected by the shutdown factors in the downstream of the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption of aluminum ingots may have a slight drop. At present, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots has been slightly accumulated, although the range has slightly slowed down, it may continue in the short term.
2. The domestic new production capacity is not much, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is relatively high in the early stage, the internal and external prices are upside down, and the demand for imported aluminum ingots is strong. Although the aluminum price falls, the short-term operating rate is greatly reduced, and the change probability is small, and the domestic supply is relatively stable.
3. In the aspect of investment, the total position of Hulai shows a trend of stopping falling and stabilizing, the willingness of long stop earning weakens, and the long short game is stalemate.
Future conclusions
On the raw material side, affected by the rising price of steam coal, the cost side is better than the price of aluminum ingot to a certain extent. Based on the sharp reduction of current profits, the impact factor of cost side is larger than that in the earlier stage; however, near the Spring Festival, the impact of production restriction, electricity restriction and gas restriction has expanded, the downstream construction has gradually declined, and the downstream consumption has weakened at the end of the year, which is bad for the aluminum price. Aluminum price is expected to remain weak in the near future, but the consolidation probability will increase.
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