1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the business club’s block list, in 2020, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price mainly fluctuated up and down. In April, there was a sharp jump and then a sharp drop, with a short-term rise and fall of more than 80%. The price at the beginning of 2020 is 6698 yuan / ton, and that at the end of 2020 is 7209 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 7.62%. In 2020, the annual low price is 5185 yuan / ton on April 2, and the annual high price is 9446 yuan / ton on April 12 and 13, with a monthly amplitude of 82.18%.
2、 Monthly analysis
1. In February, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two rounds of shocks, and the market was slightly pessimistic. It is expected that the future market is not ideal.
In March, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced a rapid decline trend after two small rises, with 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the monthly low price was 5378 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 15.31%; the monthly high price was 6663 yuan / ton from March 6 to March 9, with a monthly amplitude of 19.29%. Affected by the international crude oil market game, the crude oil market has repeatedly been low. As the production and inventory of propylene were low before, the decline was not significant in the early stage, and the follow-up trend was also obvious in the later stage. At the beginning of April, more propylene enterprises may start production and increase production. And the lower butanol and octanol market down significantly, although isopropanol is still rising gratifying, PP futures also have a callback, can still be a lonely tree difficult to support, it is expected that there will continue to be a downward trend in the future.
In April, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced a huge upward and downward trend, and then fluctuated and stabilized, with 5239 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 5932 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.22%; the monthly low price appeared on April 2, with 5185 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared on April 12 and 13, with 9446 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 82.18%. The international crude oil market price is generally low, but affected by the event, it may rise in the near future, so it has little impact on propylene. In April, the melt blown cloth rose sharply, which affected the raw material propylene market, which has been stable. The downstream market is relatively flat, and the rising market of isopropanol has also calmed down. On the whole, it has a slight positive impact, but the impact is limited. In addition, the May Day just needs to be prepared, and it is expected that it will go up slightly and then stabilize in the future.
In May, the price of domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated and went up, then fell back, and rose slightly at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the monthly low price was 5936 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, the monthly high price was 6595 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 11.09%; the monthly high price was 6979 yuan / ton from May 21 to 23, with a monthly amplitude of 17.57%. The international crude oil market price continues to rise, which has a positive effect on propylene. Most downstream prices have risen, but the pressure of raw materials still exists. Some downstream products adopt the way of reducing production and stopping production, and the operating rate is declining. They just need to purchase, and the delivery and investment are cold. The manufacturers’ shipment inventory is gradually stable. It is expected that the future market may be slightly affected by crude oil.
In June, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two and a half rounds of ups and downs, with 6643 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6845 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.04%; the monthly high price appeared on June 4, with 6906 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on June 13, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%, with 6498 yuan / ton. Although the price of crude oil in the international crude oil market is slightly lower, the future market is still ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. The downstream prices have been rising and falling, but the operating rate is ideal, the trading is relatively active, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively low, and the maintenance of some devices is stopped. It is expected that there are still signs of rising in the future.
In July, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced three rounds of ups and downs, with 6866 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6825 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 0.60%; the monthly high price appeared from July 9 to 11, with 6892 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on July 4 and 5, with 6636 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 3.86%. At present, propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and the shipment is smooth. Although the price of crude oil has declined slightly, the overall downstream market is relatively ideal in the near future. Propylene market price has been rising continuously, although it has not reached the upper limit, but the purchasing enthusiasm has been slightly reduced. It is mainly just need to purchase, and the market atmosphere is general. It is expected that it will rise slightly again and then stabilize in the future.
In August, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price went up and broke through the original range, then fluctuated and stabilized, with 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.34%; the monthly low price appeared on August 4, with 6826 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared on August 10-13, with 7036 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 3.08%. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price fluctuates slightly, the downstream polypropylene futures market rises continuously, the overall profit margin is good, and there are many positive factors, but the just need to purchase is the main, the overall market trading is stable, and it is expected that the propylene price may rise.
In September, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price showed a ladder like rise. At the beginning of the month, it rose significantly and then stabilized, with a slight downward shock. In the middle of the month, it rose rapidly again. In the second half of the month, the price was generally stable, with a slight upward trend at the end of the month. The price at the beginning of the month is the monthly low price, 6989 yuan / ton; the price at the end of the month is the monthly high price, 7503 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 7.35%. At present, propylene manufacturers do not have much inventory, crude oil prices are declining, but the downstream products are profitable, the operating rate is high, and there is a demand for replenishment before the festival, which has a certain support for propylene. The overall positive factors are more than negative factors. Now the propylene price is at the top position, and the upward trend is difficult. It is expected that the future market will be stable in the short term.
In October, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price was stable in the first half of the month and plummeted in the second half. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7503 yuan / ton, at the end of the month, the price was 6736 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 10.21%; at the end of the month, the price was 7530 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 10.54%. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is gradually increasing, the crude oil price is going down, the downstream supply is sufficient, and the external supply is entering. The market is a little bad, and the price has shown a large decline in the short term. It is expected that the future market will be affected by the detailed inventory, or stabilize after a small decline.
In November, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated steadily in the first half of the year, and rose sharply in the second half. At the beginning of the month, the monthly price was 6737 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the monthly price was 7739 yuan / ton. The monthly average price rose by more than 1000 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 14.87%. At present, propylene manufacturers have less inventory, the crude oil price has been up and down, the downstream market is better, and the increase is more obvious. However, the market starts to stabilize at the end of the month, and the upward pressure is greater in the later period. It is expected that it will be stable for a short time in the future.
In December, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly in the first ten days, fell slightly in the middle of the year, then stabilized, and fell in a straight line in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7712 yuan / ton, at the end of the month, the price was 7209 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 6.52%; on December 8 and 9, the price was 8191 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 11.99%. Propylene inventory is increasing, crude oil price is rising slightly, and the downstream market is empty more than much. The overall situation is slightly depressed, mainly for the purchase of just need. It is expected that there is still room for further downward trend in the future.
3、 Future forecast
According to the propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society, in 2020, except for the huge fluctuation caused by polypropylene in April, the rest of the propylene market is mainly stable up and down within a certain range. At the present stage, the crude oil is favorable and the downstream market is general, but the operating rate can still be affected. It is expected that the price will be stable in the short term, and the possibility of a slight rise can not be ruled out.
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