1、 Price trend
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According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal will continue to rise in early 2021. On January 1, the average market price of steam coal was 818.75 yuan / ton, and on January 10, the average market price of steam coal was 878.75 yuan / ton, up 7.33%. Since the fourth quarter, the price of steam coal has continued to rise, from the average market price of 631 yuan / ton in early December to 878.75 yuan / ton on January 10, with an increase rate of 39.26%, which can be described as a “good start” in 2021.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In terms of origin, the tight supply in the fourth quarter of 2020 will be affected by environmental protection policies, especially by the reduction of coal production in Inner Mongolia. As of November 2020, the output of raw coal in Inner Mongolia is 889 million tons, 5.9% lower than that in the same period of the previous year. At present, there is not much coal in the main producing areas, so the coal price keeps rising. The output of Shaanxi Province is still low.
Downstream power plants: frequent cold air attacks, the temperature in many parts of the country “diving”. The year-on-year growth of coastal power plants has been around 18%, and the year-on-year growth of daily consumption data on January 7 has reached 30%. Although the inventory increased for three consecutive days under the influence of import increment, with the new high of daily consumption, the inventory went down again. At the same time, the total available days fell below 10 days. At present, the main stream price of 5500 kcal steam coal is 870-890 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of 5000 kcal steam coal is 770-810 yuan / ton.
Macro: according to Argus, in the past two months, the number of coal exports from Australia’s Newcastle port to China has dropped sharply, with only 430000 tons in November and zero in December. According to the shipment data compiled by Argus, in December 2020, Newcastle port exported 14.4 million tons of coal, up 26.87% from 11.35 million tons in November, but down 7% from 15.48 million tons in the same period of last year. From January to December 2020, Newcastle port exported 160 million tons of coal, down 3.4% from 166 million tons in the same period of last year.
Business analysts believe: the major coal enterprises promise to speed up coal production, but in the Spring Festival, under the premise of safe production, the incremental supply of producing areas will not be very optimistic. At present, the daily coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is far more than that of the same period in previous years. Under the high consumption, the number of days available for inventory decreases rapidly, and the number of days available for inventory of some power plants drops below the warning line. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price may maintain a strong trend, and the trend may narrow slightly, depending on the downstream market demand.
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