Price trend of mixed xylene in 2020
In 2020, the price of mixed xylene will fall precipitously, then fluctuate in a weak position, and rise slightly at the end of the year. On January 1, 2020, the average price of mixed xylene was 5570 yuan / ton, and on December 31, 2020, the average price of mixed xylene was 3954 yuan / ton, which decreased by 1616 yuan / ton or 29.01% compared with that in 2020 at the beginning of the year
In 2019, the lowest average price of mixed xylene appeared on January 3, with the price of 4878.57 yuan / ton; in 2020, the lowest price of mixed xylene appeared on April 7, with the price of 3070 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1808.57 yuan / ton or 37.07% compared with that in 19 years. In 2019, the highest price of mixed xylene is 6910 yuan / ton from September 23 to September 29; in 2020, the highest price is 5720 yuan / ton from January 13, a decrease of 1190 yuan / ton or 17.22% compared with that in 19 years. In 2020, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2650 yuan / ton, and in 2019, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2031.43 yuan / ton.
Under the influence of the domestic epidemic, the price is almost cut off
The trend of mixed xylene and toluene is basically the same in 20202. In the early spring festival, affected by the weak seasonal demand and the coming of the Spring Festival, the pre year stock price of mixed xylene rose to the highest point in the year, and then began to soften slightly to the end of January.
After the festival, the price of mixed xylene fell precipitously, and the price was almost cut by the waist. With the outbreak of the domestic epidemic, the national transportation has stagnated, the consumption of gasoline has fallen precipitously, the storage of refined oil has accumulated, and the demand for blending xylene has shrunk seriously. In addition, the process of domestic enterprises’ resumption of work and production is slow, and the starting load of mixed xylene downstream drops to the freezing point, so the overall demand is weak.
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The price war in oil producing countries has led to a deep drop in costs
At first, affected by the domestic epidemic, Brent crude oil fell to US $56.62/barrel and WTI crude oil fell to US $51.56/barrel for fear of China’s fuel demand decline and economic depression. With China’s epidemic under control and OPEC + production cut, oil prices experienced a brief rebound. However, the good news did not last long. In March, OPEC + production reduction agreement negotiations broke down, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producing countries launched price wars, and crude oil fell sharply. In the first quarter of 2020, Brent oil prices fell by more than 70%, while WTI oil prices fell by nearly 60%.
Brent oil price
WTI oil price
The deep drop of cost caused the avalanche of domestic chemical product market, and the market of mixed xylene entered the trough.
Weak demand and price deadlock
With the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic situation, the oil price rebounded, and the downstream also recovered to a certain extent; in addition, the foreign mixed xylene market was less affected by the epidemic situation, and the mixed xylene price in Europe and America was higher than that in Asia, which led to the opening of Asia us arbitrage window. Domestic enterprises returned to work and production, the demand for gasoline increased greatly, and the early inventory accumulation was not much, so the mixed xylene rebounded in April.
But the good times are not long. The outbreak of epidemic situation in foreign countries has dealt a great blow to the economy of many countries. The price war between oil producing countries has worsened the oil price, caused a sharp drop in crude oil, and seriously reduced the demand for energy and chemical products. The price of mixed xylene in Europe and the United States dropped sharply. At this time, the domestic economy gradually recovered, the price of mixed xylene rose, the internal and external market surplus, the import volume of mixed xylene increased gradually, the inventory accumulated, and the market supply pressure increased day by day. Downstream demand is weak, inventory pressure is prominent, mixed xylene prices in mid April and early April entered a stalemate after rebounding from the bottom.
Cost side: after April, with OPEC + reaching a large-scale production reduction agreement, the superposed epidemic situation has improved, the demand for crude oil has increased, and the international oil price has begun to rise. The period from August to October is relatively stable. Supply side: favorable balance of internal and external market, increased import volume of mixed xylene, high inventory, difficult to consume. Demand side: the demand for downstream oil transfer, TDI, PX, etc. continued to be low, while the demand for downstream goods remained rigid, and the demand for mixed xylene continued to be insufficient. The downstream demand of “Jinjiu Yinshi” mixed xylene also showed no signs of improvement.
Brent oil price
WTI oil price
Unexpected slight increase at the end of the year:
Compared with previous years, in November, due to seasonal factors, mixed xylene entered the traditional off-season. However, in November 2020, there will be a major breakthrough in foreign new vaccines, the dust of the US general election will be settled, and OPEC + will continue to push forward the production reduction agreement. The oil price will open an upward channel. From November to December, Brent will increase by more than 35%, and WTI will increase by more than 30%. Driven by the sharp rebound in oil prices, chemicals have significantly rebounded, and mixed xylene has a small increase following the big stream.
Brent oil price
WTI oil price
In terms of refined oil, the overall price of gasoline showed a fluctuating upward trend after April, and rose to the highest point since late March on December 21, with the price at 5773.17 yuan / ton.
Gasoline price
In December, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the consumption of benzene in downstream solvents decreased significantly; although the price of refined oil rose, the demand for gasoline blending was general, and the demand side of downstream Px, PTA and ox remained weak, and the mixed xylene ended in a weak decline.
Outlook for 2021:
In 2021, the petrochemical industry will recover as a whole, and the chemical industry will recover as a whole. However, the mixed xylene market is expected to be weak in the early 2021, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still the main factor restricting the price. In addition, the bad news of the epidemic could not be eliminated in the short term, and the trend of mixed xylene in 2021 was under pressure. Mixed xylene analysts of business news agency believe that the trend of mixed xylene in 2021 needs attention: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells and the inventory data of crude oil and refined oil. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery progress of downstream industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, US dollar index and stock market linkage.
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