Silver and gold both plummeted on Friday night
1. Domestic spot silver plummeted by 8.96% and gold plummeted by 3.67%
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According to the tracking data of business news agency, on January 8, 2021, domestic precious metal spot gold and silver plummeted at night. As of 02:30 on January 9, the latest price of Au (T + D) was 381.01 yuan / g, down 3.67%, and the latest price of Ag (T + D) was 5098 yuan / kg, down 8.96%.
2. Ag2102, the main domestic futures contract, plummeted by 9.12% and au2102 by 3.87%
As of 02:30 on the 9th, the latest price of main contract au2012 dropped by 15.38 yuan / g to 381.01 yuan / g, or 3.87%; the latest price of main contract au2016 dropped by 15.56 yuan / g to 383.84 yuan / g, or 3.90%; the latest price of main contract ag2102 dropped by 514 yuan / kg to 5125 yuan / kg, or 9.12%; the latest price of main contract ag2106 dropped by 9.12% Down 531 yuan / kg to 5175 yuan / kg, or 9.31%.
3. The price of CME precious metals stopped falling and recovered slightly in non China trading period
In the non China trading session, at about 16:00 Beijing time on the 8th, the price of precious metals in the external market plummeted and dived sharply, followed by the low opening of the domestic night market; after the end of the domestic night market, the price of precious metals in the external market stopped falling and rebounded slightly.
News factors
1. U.S. non farm data as expected
At 21:30 Beijing time on January 8, the U.S. Department of labor updated the non-agricultural employment data for December 2020, showing that in December 2020, the number of non-agricultural workers decreased by 140000, expected to increase by 50000, the former value increased by 245000, and the unemployment rate was 6.7%.
After 22 million jobs were lost in the job market in March / April 2020, 140000 jobs were lost again in December, and 12 million jobs were recovered in the year. The data in June is the most optimistic, as shown in the figure below
According to the ADP data of “small non-agricultural” in December, the number of employees in December decreased by 123000, far lower than the expected increase of 75000 and the previous increase of 307000. Although the US ism non manufacturing PMI recorded 57.2 in December, a new high since September last year, the ISM employment index reversed the upward trend of the previous three months and dropped to 48.2. Ism reported that manufacturing employment increased during the month, but employment in the service sector decreased.
2. Trump’s Twitter account is permanently suspended, Biden’s trillion dollar stimulus plan is expected to strengthen
Trump’s Twitter account has been permanently suspended. Biden said that he would talk to House Speaker Pelosi and Democratic leaders on January 9, Beijing time, and propose a comprehensive stimulus package. The number will be very “large”. Details of the stimulus plan, which is expected to be released next Thursday, will be trillions of dollars in size. Biden said he would use financial means to fight the epidemic, vaccinate teachers with new crowns and insist on wearing masks in all federal jurisdictions.
The market began to look forward to the post trump era. However, trump said that he would seek the possibility of establishing his own platform. The US political situation may still have a game before trump is “cool”.
3. In November, the global central bank’s net sales showed a momentum recently
According to the latest data released in January 2021, from January to November 2020, the global central banks’ overall net purchase of gold showed a trend of net sales in the near future, including the first net sales in August and September, the return in October, and the net sales in November. The monthly increase and decrease of global central banks’ gold reserves are as follows:
In November, the central banks selling gold were Turkey (20.9 tons) and Mongolia (2.4 tons); the central banks buying gold were Uzbekistan (8.4 tons), Qatar (3.1 tons), India (2.8 tons), Kazakhstan (1.7 tons) and Ukraine (0.6 tons). As of November 2020, the world’s official gold reserves totaled 35191.1 tons. The top 15 official gold reserves in the world are as follows:
Future forecast
The price of precious metal gold and silver continued to rise in December. According to the data of business news agency, the monthly increase of domestic spot gold was 6.57%, and the monthly increase of spot silver was 19.44%. In the recent three trading days, the price of precious metal began to fluctuate horizontally and downward. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business news agency, believes that before the crash, the price touched the previous high shock range, and the resistance of upward attack increased. On the other hand, the profit-making disk surged sharply, and the demand for profit-making funds out of the horizontal situation increased. There was a slight flurry, and the funds squeezed each other to stop the profit. At present, with half of the increase in December, the price may gradually stop falling and stabilize. It is expected that the stop falling level in the near future will be higher than that at the end of November.
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