The year 2020 has passed quietly. We have experienced too many hardships and witnessed one historical moment after another. The outbreak of global health events, the sudden collapse of international crude oil, the five fusions of the U.S. stock market, and so on, all tell the extraordinary story of 2020. From the perspective of octanol, please step into the octanol market in 2020 with the pace of octanol analysts of business clubs, and take a look at the experience of 2020 from the perspective of octanol.
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Price trend of Shandong octanol in 2020
As can be seen from the above figure, in 2020, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province decreased slightly at the beginning of the year, rebounded to the bottom in the middle of the year, and tended to be stable. At the end of the year, it soared to the sky, reaching the highest price in five years. As of December 31, the average ex factory price quoted by mainstream octanol manufacturers was 11833.33 yuan / ton, up 4866.66 yuan / ton or 69.86% compared with 6966.67 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the year. It can be seen from the trend chart that the highest price of octanol in 2020 appeared on December 21, with an average price of 11866.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on April 3, with an average price of 5066.67 yuan / ton, the lowest in four years. The price difference was 6800.00 yuan / ton, and the amplitude was 134.21%.
【2】 Shandong octanol price fell 22.49% in the first quarter
In the first quarter of 2020, the price of octanol dropped precipitously. The ex factory price of octanol dropped from 6966.67 yuan / ton on January 1 to 5400.00 yuan / ton on March 31, and the quoted price dropped by 1566.67 yuan / ton, or 22.49%. Overall, Shandong octanol market fell significantly in the first quarter. In March 2020, the ex factory quotation of octanol decreased from 6583.33 yuan / ton on March 1 to 5400.00 yuan / ton on March 31, with a decrease of 1183.33 yuan / ton, the largest monthly decrease of 17.97%.
In the first quarter of 2020, public health incidents suddenly broke out, and China actively adopted the measures of flow control and isolation, but the production and sales of octanol were affected, especially the demand side declined seriously, the terminal shut down was more and the downstream market returned slowly, and the demand recovery was less than expected. In March, Saudi Arabia waged a big crude oil price war, international crude oil plummeted and the US stock market broke for the fifth time. A 7% drop in the S & P 500 triggered a circuit breaker and suspended trading for 15 minutes. The Dow also fell below the 20000 mark, erasing gains over the past three years. The NASDAQ fell 6.30%. The sharp drop in crude oil exacerbated the deep decline in octanol prices. Coupled with the demand worries caused by public health incidents, the global economy is facing huge downward pressure and panic spread. In the first quarter, the price of Shandong octanol was low, and the domestic octanol market hit the low level in the year at the end of March and the beginning of April.
【3】 The price of Shandong octanol rose 42.72% in the second quarter
In the second quarter of 2020, the market of octanol fluctuated and rose as a whole. The ex factory price rose from 5266.67 yuan / ton on April 1 to 7516.67 yuan / ton on June 30, up 2250.00 yuan / ton, or 42.72%. On the whole, the supply was less than demand, which was the main factor for the larger growth of octanol market..
In the second quarter of 2020, the spot supply of Shandong octanol market was in short supply, the downstream demand enthusiasm was strong, and the domestic octanol market price bottomed out and rebounded. In April, China’s epidemic prevention and control achieved a phased victory, the resumption of production and work was promoted rapidly, and the demand side was gradually released. Moreover, the international oil price bottomed out and rebounded in April, and the domestic chemical market as a whole was in a good situation. From May to June, the start-up load of downstream DOP increased to a medium high level, the domestic octanol market demand improved significantly, the market enthusiasm was high, and the domestic octanol market rose broadly. The current domestic octanol market price has rebounded and exceeded the average price at the beginning of the year. In the second quarter, Hualu Hengsheng octanol plant was overhauled, Shandong Jianlan plant was short stopped, the starting load was not high, and the domestic octanol market was short of spot supply.
【4】 In the third quarter, the price of Shandong octanol fluctuated and fell by 1.11%
In the third quarter of 2020, octanol market fell first and then rose. The ex factory price of octanol dropped from 7516.67 yuan / ton on July 1 to 6916.67 yuan / ton on August 28, down 600.00 yuan / ton, down 7.98%; then it rose to 7416.67 yuan / ton on September 18, up 500.00 yuan / ton, up 7.23%. Finally, the price of 7420 yuan / ton was maintained until the end of the quarter. Overall, octanol market in the third quarter fell by 1.11%.
In the third quarter of 2020, the overall operating rate of the downstream DOP plant remained at a high level, but the propylene raw material fluctuated horizontally in the same period, so it was difficult to form a support on the cost side, and the domestic octanol market was mainly frozen. Downstream DOP, DOTP cost pressure is larger, market prices follow octanol rise, the two form support each other. In the middle and late September, due to the centralized stocking of downstream factories before the National Day holiday, the atmosphere of market negotiation improved, and the focus of real order negotiation began to move up gradually.
【5】 The price of Shandong octanol rose 59.19% in the fourth quarter
In the fourth quarter of 2020, octanol market rose sharply. The ex factory price of octanol increased from 7433.33 yuan / ton on October 1 to 11833.33 yuan / ton on December 31, and the quoted price increased by 4400.00 yuan / ton, or 59.19%. Overall, the octanol market rose sharply in the fourth quarter and stabilized at the end of the quarter. In December 2020, the ex factory quotation of octanol increased from 9166.67 yuan / ton on December 1 to 11833.33 yuan / ton on December 31, with an increase of 2666.66 yuan / ton, the biggest monthly increase in 2020, with an increase of 29.09%.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the domestic octanol market rose to the highest level in five years due to the centralized maintenance of overseas octanol plants, the positive driving force of n-butanol supply and the positive support of domestic DOP and DOTP demand. In November, the octanol units of LG and Hanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. were overhauled intensively, resulting in a sharp decline in domestic octanol imports. In December, the n-butanol unit in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was forced to shut down. Due to the impact of domestic environmental protection, the n-butanol plants in North China reduced the operating rate, indirectly driving the octanol market. In late November, the operation rate of downstream plasticizer plants bottomed out and rebounded, and the demand side in the field performed relatively well. Constrained by the dual pressure of demand side and cost side, the domestic octanol market price exceeded the 10000 yuan mark. However, due to the increase of environmental protection and safety inspection in December, domestic plasticizer factories slightly reduced the negative operation, and the digestion capacity of downstream high price raw materials decreased. The domestic octanol market fell slightly at the end of the year, but the overall price was still significantly higher than that at the beginning of the year.
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