Price list of aluminum ingots
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According to the data of business news agency, on December 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 15786.67 yuan / ton, down 7.12% from the average price of 16996.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), up 8.47% from the average price of 14553.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and up 40.49% from the valley price of 11230 yuan / ton at the end of the year (March 24).
Summary of Fundamentals:
1. Aluminum ingot destocking remained significant in December
According to statistics, as of December 24, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory totaled 58.6 tons, 3000 tons less than last week, 29000 tons less than 615000 tons on November 19, 719000 tons less than October 16, and 133000 tons less than last week.
2. The import volume of aluminum ingots increased
According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China imported 188973 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November, down 26.4% from October and up 158.6% from the same period last year.
In addition, it is estimated that more than 100000 tons of electrolytic aluminum will be imported in December, the import volume in January may also exceed 80000 tons, and the overseas import contract volume in December may flow into China from January to February.
According to the exact data we have learned, 2.44 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products will be imported in November 2020, a fourfold increase over the same period of last year. China’s annual aluminum import in 2020 has reached a record high.
3. Policy news
On December 21, 2020, the European Commission announced that it would conduct an anti circumvention investigation on aluminum foil in rolls originating in China. In the filing notice, the European Commission pointed out that the Commission has sufficient evidence to prove that the re export of the products originated in China through Thailand (whether or not it is indicated that they originated in Thailand) has evaded the current anti-dumping measures against China’s rolled aluminum foil. The EU CN codes of the products involved are ex7607 11 11 and ex 7607 19 10 (Taric codes are 7607111111 and 7607191011).
Basic outlook
At present, the domestic aluminum ingot consumption is good, the social inventory continues to move down, and the supply and demand factors support the strong operation of aluminum price. With the upside down of the internal and external market, the import aluminum ingot volume increases, flattening the increase to a certain extent. Near the end of the year, the foreign investment gold plate in the industry gradually withdraws, and the downstream consumption is expected to weaken on the eve of the Spring Festival The profit is roughly estimated to be 3000-5000 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation can be operated in a large space. The future market operation is mainly cautious. However, the situation of low inventory will be strongly supported at the bottom of the price, and there is a large probability of cross trading in the near future.
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