According to the price monitoring of the business community, affected by the weakening cost in the near future, the rise of domestic polyester filament Market slowed down last week (December 18 – December 25). As of December 25, the average price of low elastic polyester DTY (150D / 48F) was 7615 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.60%; the average price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) was 5971 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.24%; polyester POY was flat with the beginning of the week.
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At present, polyester POY (150D / 48F) of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 5650 – 5950 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150D / 48F) is 7300 – 7750 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 5800 – 6050 yuan / ton. At present, the market performance is average. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 40% – 60%, and the production and sales of some better factories can be even. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 17-33 days, of which POY inventory is 4-12 days, FDY inventory is about 12-30 days, and DTY inventory is about 19-33 days.
In terms of raw material market and crude oil, international crude oil has continued to make efforts since early November. This week, due to the uncertainty of public health events, the market worried that the recovery of demand would slow down, leading to the decline of crude oil and the weakening of PTA cost support. However, the decline of crude oil and refined oil stocks in the United States and the prospect of brexit agreement in the United Kingdom restrained the decline of oil prices. As of December 24, the WTI closing price of international crude oil was at US $48.23/barrel, while the Brent closing price was at US $51.29/barrel.
The domestic PTA spot market first fell and then rose, showing a slight decline in the week as a whole. As of December 25, the average spot price in the domestic market was 3630 yuan / ton, down 0.68% from the beginning of the week and 25.87% from the same period last year. PTA supply remained at a high level. Due to the limited maintenance efforts, the domestic PTA plant operation rate continued to maintain about 90% in the first half of December. With the maintenance of 4.5 million tons of PTA plant in Fuhai, the PTA industry operation rate dropped to around 85% by December 24. In terms of inventory, weak demand led to a substantial accumulation of domestic PTA inventory again, and the social inventory broke through the 4 million ton mark. As of December 18, domestic PTA social inventory was 4.334 million tons, a significant increase of 3.056 million tons compared with the same period in 2019.
The domestic textile market continues to cool down. The number of orders placed in the downstream weaving market has decreased and the stamina is insufficient. In winter, the turnover of fabrics has decreased month on month. In spring, the orders placed for fabrics are relatively limited. The operating rate is insufficient in some parts, and has now dropped to around 76%. At this stage, affected by the outbreak of overseas epidemic, the situation of foreign trade terminal orders has not improved significantly, and exports will be hindered or face downward risks again.
Xia Ting, an analyst of business news agency, believes that the raw material market will restart the 1.1 million ton PTA plant in Zhuhai this week, and the pressure on its own supply side will increase, but the crude oil shock is near the 10 month high, and the cost support still remains. Downstream demand terminal textile off-season characteristics gradually highlighted, but fortunately near the end of the month and is in the traditional year-end stock, partial delivery is OK. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of polyester filament will be stable and strong.
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