1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 1906 yuan / ton on January 1, and 2116 yuan / ton on December 23. The overall increase of monoammonium phosphate in the whole year was 11.01%, with the maximum amplitude of 12.97%.
According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2200 yuan / ton, and that on December 23 was 2440 yuan / ton. The overall increase of diammonium phosphate in the whole year was 10.91%, and the maximum amplitude was 13.74%.
2、 Market analysis
In 2020, the market of monoammonium phosphate is relatively volatile, with an overall upward trend and a high price at the end of the year. During the spring ploughing season in the first quarter, the peak season of the year was ushered, and the overall price of map rose by 9.27%. In the peak season of phosphate fertilizer, chemical fertilizer rises together. The raw materials of ammonium phosphate rose sharply, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer was strong, which led to the price rise of ammonium phosphate. Due to poor demand in the off-season, monoammonium phosphate fell sharply in the second quarter, and the overall price fell by 3.58% in the quarter. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer is weak, the market transaction is limited, and the supply of monoammonium phosphate is sufficient, the market is weak, and the price trend is relatively stable. The inflection point was realized in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, the market of ammonium phosphate was boosted by the tight supply of goods, cost support and other favorable factors. The price went up, and the focus of trading moved up. In the quarter, the overall price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 13.39%. Towards the end of the year, the lower reaches of the market showed fatigue and limited ability to receive goods. The offer of some areas of map began to loosen. However, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in the market remained stable. With the weakening of the support of the demand side in the future, the market may usher in an inflection point.
In 2020, the market of diammonium phosphate was first depressed and then rose. In the second half of the year, the price rose all the way. At the end of the year, the price rose to a high level in the year, showing a bright performance. The overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 1.14% in the first quarter. Due to the low price of raw materials and poor transportation in many places, the downstream traders mainly digest the inventory, with poor enthusiasm, strong market supply and weak demand, and the price rise of DAP is hindered. In March, prices began to rise and then stabilized. With Hubei enterprises resuming production one after another, the spot supply is sufficient, new downstream purchase orders are reduced, and the export competition is fierce. The market of diammonium phosphate fell in the second quarter, and the overall price fell by 3.58% in the quarter. In the second half of the year, the domestic and foreign demand for diammonium phosphate increased, the supply of goods was relatively tight, the market gradually improved, and the price began to rise continuously. Near the end of the year, the tight supply of goods continues, the demand for exports slows down, and the market transaction is tepid. However, the demand for downstream fertilizer is stable, and the price is still high. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable.
2020 is coming to an end. The domestic phosphorus ore market is weak and stable as a whole, and the downstream demand is weak. There are not many new orders to purchase, and the support for phosphorus ore is limited. The phosphorus ore industry mainly focused on stabilizing the price a year ago. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the recent adjustment of the phosphorus ore market is limited, and it is expected that the quotation will not be reduced, and the overall stable operation is the main.
3、 Future forecast
Ammonium phosphate analysts of the business club believe that 2020 will be a tough year for the chemical industry, while the market of ammonium phosphate is boosted by favorable factors such as tight supply and cost support, showing a bright performance and the overall price trend is upward. Although the trend of monoammonium phosphate fluctuated in this year, it did not fall deeply. The attitude of the industry was relatively stable, and it reached a high level at the end of the year. However, after dormant in the first half of the year, diammonium phosphate started to rise in the second half of the year without any correction. At present, there is no obvious negative factor. The market of ammonium phosphate is expected to be stable before the end of the year, and the future market still needs to pay attention to the demand side guidance.
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