1、 Price trend
| Benzalkonium chloride |
According to the data from the large list of business associations, the price of domestic toluene rose after falling this week, and fell overall compared with last week. On December 13, the price of toluene was 3860 yuan / ton; on Sunday (December 20), the price was at 3850 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton lower than last week, or 0.26%.
2、 Analysis and comment
During the week, the listed price of toluene in East China increased by 150 yuan / ton, by 100 yuan / ton in Central China, and decreased by 100 yuan / ton in South China. Toluene price is supported by crude oil price; downstream TDI, PX and other start-up is stable, and demand is weak; at present, gasoline price has an obvious impact on toluene price.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of this week was higher than that of last week, and the price of domestic products was 12766.67 yuan / ton, up 0.52% over last week. At present, the TDI market is weak, the atmosphere is cold, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is not high, and the future market is weak.
In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, which was stable compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.82%. The supply of goods in PX yard is normal and the goods are in good condition. PX prices rose this week. As of the end of the week, the Asian PX market closed at US $608.5/t FOB Korea and US $626.5/t CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction implementation, total number of us oil drilling and weekly EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress in the research and development of new coronal vaccine, the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market.
Crude oil prices rose as a whole, with strong support from the cost side. But the downstream demand is weak, and the upward breakthrough resistance of toluene price is greater. We will focus on the trend of gasoline blended price, and it is expected that there will be upward momentum at the end of the year. Overall, it is expected that the domestic toluene price will continue to rise next week.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |