1、 Price trend
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According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on December 18, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 8500 yuan / ton, down 0.44% from the beginning of the week, up 8.11% month on month, and 21.3% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC market began to cool down, prices fell, the focus began to move down. The weakening of futures prices this week led to market sentiment, and the spot market fell accordingly, but the range was not large. The early part of the week, the spot market showed strong performance, and the market showed a mixed situation of ups and downs. In the middle and late part of the week, the futures price continued to decline, and the spot market generally declined. Near the weekend, the decline of futures price slowed down, and the spot market continued to decline. The enterprise’s price reduction rate was 50-350 yuan within the week/ The market price is mainly around 8500 yuan / ton, which is still at a high level. There are not many low-cost goods, and most manufacturers mainly sell them in advance. At present, the supply of goods in the spot market continues to be tight, and the price of raw materials calcium carbide is rising. However, in the early stage, the high price of PVC has caused strong resistance in the downstream, sharp decrease in profits, lack of purchasing intention, and rigid demand. As the temperature drops, the demand side also cools down, and the operating rate of product enterprises declines, the demand for profiles and pipes gradually decreases, and the large orders are few, and the support force of demand side is gradually weakened On the whole, the supply side and cost side are still in force, but due to the weakening of futures prices and the decline of the support force on the demand side, PVC may be stable and downward.
In terms of spot goods, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide is mostly around 8350-8750 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 carbide in East China is around 8500-8550 yuan / ton, while that in Hebei is 8250-8320 yuan / ton. The price of Inner Mongolia is 8030-8100 yuan / ton. The range of pvc5 type tourmaline in Hangzhou is 8380-8550 yuan / ton, and that in Changzhou is 8400-8550 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 8500-8750 yuan / ton The market quotation has been reduced to varying degrees.
Futures, PVC futures prices continue to decline recently, driving the trend of the spot market. On the 17th, the main PVC futures contract v2101 opened at 7705 yuan / ton and closed at 7675 yuan / ton, down 0.84%. The previous day’s settlement price was 7740 yuan, and the trading range was 7550-7710 yuan / ton. 175000 hands were completed, and the position was reduced by 13400 hands to 93700 hands.
Regional variety and technology December 18
Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8400-8550 yuan / ton
Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 8500-8750 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 8250-8320 yuan / ton
Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 8380-8550 yuan / ton
Upstream crude oil, on December 17, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of the main contract was $48.54/barrel, up $0.72. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $51.50/barrel, up $0.42. Oil prices continued to climb on Thursday and are now at a nine month high after EIA data showed a decline in US crude oil stockpiles, progress in the US fiscal stimulus plan and strong Asian demand boosted the market.
Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market is on the rise. Asian ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 985-995 US dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia quoted 925-935 dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. As of the 17th, the price quoted by FD in northwest Europe was 983-998 US dollars / ton, up by 6 dollars / ton. CIF northwest Europe quoted prices of 1004-1016 dollars / ton, up 12 dollars / ton. FD US Gulf offers us $683-694 / T. in recent years, the US ethylene market has been stable, and the recent European and American ethylene market has shown an upward trend. Generally speaking, the overall ethylene market demand has improved, the market trading atmosphere is warm, and the market continues to rise.
As of the 18th, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4050-4300 yuan / ton, up 13.57% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of December, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The downstream PVC market rose sharply, and the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid and early December.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club believe that the supply side and cost are still at present. With the continuous decline of futures prices, the trend of the spot market will also be affected. In addition, the cold weather, reduced demand, and strong resistance to high price PVC in the downstream are strong. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term will stabilize and the price will gradually fall.
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