1、 Price trend
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According to the business club’s big list data, aniline prices rose slightly this week, fell back over the weekend, and the overall price rose compared with last week. On November 29, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7400-7600 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 7600-7700 yuan / ton; on December 6, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7500-7600 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price of aniline was 7750-7850 yuan / ton, the average price was 1.11% higher than last week and 21.54% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of cost, pure benzene rose first and then fell following the trend of styrene price in November. From the end of November, the main influencing factors of pure benzene price changed from styrene to crude oil and external market. With the recovery of European and American prices, the arbitrage window of Asia and the United States opened, and Asian prices rose sharply. The good news will drive the focus of domestic pure benzene market negotiation higher. This week, domestic pure benzene market negotiation atmosphere is good. From November 26 to December 6, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 400 yuan / ton to 4400 yuan / ton. This week, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene twice, from 200 yuan / ton to 4400 yuan / ton. This Sunday (December 6), the price of pure benzene was 4280-4550 yuan / ton (the average price was 4376 yuan / ton), which was 186 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 4.44%.
The price of nitric acid rose this week. On Friday (December 6), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 5.56%.
The inventory of aniline enterprises is generally not high, and the volume of spot export is limited. In addition, the support brought by the rising cost, the price of aniline has increased by 100-150 yuan / ton this week. The price of aniline rose to the end of the week, and the prices of some Shandong enterprises dropped slightly by 100 yuan / ton.
3、 Future expectations
In terms of cost, crude oil and external prices are expected to be strong. With the recovery of external prices in Europe and the United States, the arbitrage windows in Asia and the United States have opened one after another, and the prices of external markets in Asia may continue to rise, further boosting the recovery of the domestic market. Downstream styrene is mainly de stocked with strong support. It is expected that the trend of pure benzene will be stronger next week.
With the arrival of the autumn and winter production restriction season, the relevant production suspension and production restriction policies are introduced in various regions, which is expected to have a certain impact on the supply and demand of aniline. Pay attention to the future trend of raw material pure benzene, and the demand changes of downstream additives and MDI. However, the short-term cost support is good, and the supply and demand of the factory are stable. It is expected that the price will rise next week.
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