1、 Price trend
| Benzalkonium chloride |
According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly in November and then fell. The price of pure benzene rebounded near the end of the month, and rose overall compared with the price of last month. On November 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 3350-3650 yuan / ton (average price was 3575 yuan / ton), and on November 30, it was 4150-4550 yuan / ton (average price was 4190 yuan / ton), with an increase of 17.2% this month. The highest price of this month appeared on November 17, with the price of 4296 yuan / ton.
2、 Analysis and comment
Pure benzene mainly follows the price fluctuation of styrene this month. In the early stage, the price of styrene was pushed up rapidly by the downstream demand, and the overall inventory of the enterprise was not high, so the price continued to rise. The booming styrene market has led to the improvement of pure benzene market demand, and the price has risen rapidly. In the middle and late ten days, with the shutdown of styrene downstream units, bulls actively took profits, and the focus of negotiation fell. In addition, the spot price of pure benzene fell rapidly due to the successive decline of styrene futures. The price of pure benzene fell rapidly due to the weakness of styrene and the negative fundamentals of pure benzene. Near the end of the month, the good news of crude oil and external market led to a rebound in the price of pure benzene. This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased 5 times and decreased 1 time, with a total increase of 750 yuan / ton.
The novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine has made new progress in the field of crude oil, which has raised the hope of economic recovery, and boosted the expectation of rising fuel demand. In November, oil prices continued to rise, or over 25%. In November, Brent oil price rose by 10.185 USD / barrel, or 28.13%; WTI oil price increased by 9.36 USD / barrel, or 25.89%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 30.52%; WTI oil price decreased by 25.11%.
In terms of external market, the external market showed a rising and falling trend in November, and the price rose significantly compared with that in October. On November 30, Korea imported 588 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, an increase of 137.67 US dollars / ton, or 30.57% compared with the previous month; and that of East China was 585.5 US dollars / ton, up 126.5 US dollars / ton, or 27.56% higher than that of the previous month
On the downstream side, styrene: affected by downstream demand and inventory, styrene showed an inverted “V” trend in November, rising rapidly in the early stage, falling rapidly in the later stage, and recovering slightly at the end of the month. On November 1, the price in Shandong was 7050 yuan / ton, while on November 30, it was 8416.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 19.39%. The highest price of this month appeared on the 17th, with the price of 9900 yuan / ton.
Aniline: in the first ten days of November, the supply and demand of aniline Market was stable, and the price was stable from the beginning of the month to the 18th. In the last ten days of November, aniline enterprises in East China mainly implemented contract orders; due to the weather, transportation of enterprises in North China was limited, and the supply of spot resources was tight, and the price rose rapidly. In addition, the cost side price rise brings good, aniline price is firm. On November 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6600-6700 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, it was 6700-6800 yuan / ton; on November 30, Shandong was 7400-7600 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, it was 7600 yuan / ton, with an average monthly increase of 13.57%.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the prospect of vaccines is generally good, and the oil price has the driving force to rise. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the new global epidemic situation and global economic recovery, as well as the news of vaccine progress, and the latest policy of OPEC + on production reduction.
The external market is in a good condition. The European and American prices continue to rise, and the arbitrage windows in Asia and the United States have opened one after another, driving up prices in Asia. The atmosphere of the domestic market is expected to improve. The supply and demand situation in December may be better than that in November, and market participants are optimistic. Pay attention to the maintenance status of pure benzene and downstream units in December, as well as the price trend of crude oil and external market.
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