1、 Price data
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According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products continued to fall. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1636.50 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 154.25 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 5.88% and a year-on-year increase of 55.19%. On November 27, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 119.80, down 0.97 points from yesterday, 23.00% from 155.59 points (2018-01-25), 79.10% higher than 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The decline in the price of petroleum coke is mainly due to increased supply. The price of low sulfur coke is firm and the demand is stable. In terms of medium and high sulfur, the operating rate of coking units has increased, and the supply has increased. Affected by the heating season, the downstream carbon enterprises shut down and reduce production. The demand is general, and the downstream receiving intention is general. In order to stimulate the shipment, refineries choose to sell at a reduced price.
Upstream: in November, the international oil price continued to rise, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.
Downstream: affected by environmental factors in heating season, the carbon market is facing production reduction and shutdown in the near future; the price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream continues to rise; the price of silicon metal market is steadily rising due to the reduction of production and furnace shutdown in the southern region, and the social supply is gradually reduced, and the price may rise steadily; in terms of steam coal, the downstream purchase enthusiasm is higher, the port coal is better transferred out, and the growth rate of coal supply in the production area is limited, The coal inventory in northern ports has been growing slowly, and the price of coal and coal transportation has been rising steadily. In winter heating season, the power plant still needs to replenish the storage of steam coal. The short-term price of steam coal is expected to rise.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 47th week of 2020 (11.23-11.27), among which there are 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the total commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities of increase are liquefied natural gas (8.51%), WTI crude oil (7.76%) and Brent crude oil (6.29%). There were two kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products were petroleum coke (- 5.88%) and methanol (- 0.35%). This week, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.
The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the current supply of petroleum coke is increasing, and the downstream environmental protection and other factors have reduced the demand for petroleum coke, and the downstream receiving intention is general. In order to stimulate the shipment, refineries choose to sell at a reduced price. It is expected that the petroleum coke will be stable in the short term.
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