1、 Price data
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products dropped slightly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1684.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1653.50 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.81% and increasing by 61.16% compared with last year. On November 20, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 128.61, down 1.2 points compared with yesterday, 17.34% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and 92.27% higher than 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The decline in the price of petroleum coke is mainly due to increased supply. The supply of low sulfur coke is less, the demand is stable and the price is rising. Compared with medium and high sulfur coke, the operating rate of coking unit increased, the supply increased, the downstream demand was general, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke decreased.
Upstream: the overseas epidemic situation is still serious, and the international crude oil market demand is not good; however, there are also good news that OPEC will prolong the production reduction, the US shale oil production will decrease, and the development of new crown vaccine will accelerate. The international crude oil price fluctuates upward, with WTI crude oil price increasing by 5.71% and Brent crude oil price increasing by 5.10% weekly.
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Downstream: affected by environmental factors in heating season, the carbon market is facing a reduction in production in the near future, and the price rise of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream has supported carbon enterprises. Due to the decrease of production and the increase of furnace shutdown in southern China, the social supply of silicon metal market has gradually decreased, and the price may rise steadily. At present, coal production in China will be limited as the end of the year. However, in the winter heating season, the power plant still needs to replenish the thermal coal, and the short-term steam coal price is still expected to rise.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 46 th week (11.16-11.20) of 2020, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the energy sector, with WTI crude oil (4.41%), Brent crude oil (3.32%) and MTBE (2.80%). There were 5 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were liquefied natural gas (- 5.34%), petroleum coke (- 1.81%) and liquefied gas (- 1.80%). This week, all rose or fell 0.41%.
According to the petroleum coke analysts of the business agency, the demand for petroleum coke has been reduced due to the start-up and resumption of production of early-stage inspection and repair plants, the continuous increase of petroleum coke supply, and the influence of downstream environmental protection and other factors. It is comprehensively predicted that the petroleum coke price will maintain a weak stable trend in the short term.
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