1、 Price trend
| Benzalkonium chloride |
According to the data of business agency, on November 19, the average price of domestic LNG was 3416.67 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from the previous day, 9.29% from the beginning of the month, 14.27% month on month, and 22.93% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The domestic LNG market entered a downward trend in November, showing a continuous downward trend since the beginning of the month. On the 19th, it fell by 2.66%, and the price in many places was about 50-150 yuan. Domestic LNG opened a downward channel. This round of decline is mainly due to the rapid price rise in the early stage, insufficient follow-up on the demand side, and the emergence of downstream resistance psychology. Some end users prefer alternative energy sources, and their enthusiasm for LNG procurement has decreased. Many liquid plants are not able to deliver goods smoothly, and the price continues to fall. In the middle and north of China, the overall heating and raw gas auction are not expected to be favorable. At the same time, due to the emergency response to heavy polluted weather in some areas such as Hebei and Henan, industrial users have reduced production and the demand has continued to decline. In addition, cold air strikes, rain and snow weather affect logistics, and manufacturers’ shipment may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be weak.
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 19, the price dropped significantly compared with that of the previous trading day. The average price in Inner Mongolia was around 3360 yuan / ton, falling by 50-230 yuan / ton. The average price in Shaanxi was around 3500 yuan / ton, falling by 50-160 yuan / ton. The average price in Shanxi was around 3820 yuan / ton, falling by 50-150 yuan / ton. In Xinjiang, the average price was around 3380 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton In Ningxia, the average price was around 3440 yuan / ton, down about 100 yuan / ton, while in Sichuan, the average price was around 3550 yuan / ton.
Regional specification quotation (yuan / ton) date
Inner Mongolia LNG 3200-3600 November 19
Shaanxi LNG 3400-3600 November 19
Xinjiang LNG 2900-3600 November 19
Ningxia LNG 3350-3420 November 19
November 19-3500 natural gas in Shanxi
Sichuan LNG 3480-4200 November 19
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After the adjustment of methanol price, the price of methanol increased by about 50 yuan / day, and some domestic enterprises reduced the price of methanol. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1 and 2115 yuan / ton on November 19 in Shandong. The price cycle increased by 12.35%, and the price rose by 9.59% month on month and 1.78% year on year. Affected by the weather in some areas, there is no quotation for shutdown and maintenance of the device. At present, the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term.
Urea, in the late November, the market price of urea in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.
Due to the high price of liquid chlorine as raw material, the cost of dichloromethane production enterprises is high. In addition, the lower rigid demand is flat, the enterprise starts to decline, the market supply is reduced, and a small number of downstream banks are replenished on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3070-3170 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3700 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3050 yuan / ton.
Ethylene, current crude oil: OPEC members tend to postpone the plan to increase daily crude oil production in January, and the international oil price rose to the highest level since early September on Wednesday. Therefore, business agency data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts from the business club believe that: at present, the favorable expectations are insufficient, many places are affected by heavy pollution weather emergency response and other factors, the industrial demand continues to decline, in addition to the cold air attack, rain and snow weather affecting logistics, manufacturers’ shipment may continue to be under pressure, and the domestic LNG market is expected to run weakly.
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